EXPERT REACTION: State of the Climate 2022 – Australia continues to warm; heavy rainfall becomes more intense

This report shows that our climate is changing. It is here now, and the impacts are now. For Australia to be best prepared for these cascading hazards, back-to-back ‘worst ever’, we must focus our efforts on mitigation and land use. These are the two areas that can make the most difference once the rain falls, the storm brews or the bushfire starts.

Natural Hazards Research Australia is now conducting critical research into weather prediction, land planning, infrastructure development, population trends, community awareness, and more. This research is showing what sort of construction is appropriate for which location and that in some locations, building is clearly unwise. 

We must change this risk now – better land using planning is the way forward, and the science supports this.

Mitigation saves lives and money. As an example, research has shown that flood mitigation investments are cost effective and can pay for themselves many times over. For every dollar invested in retrofitting homes with flood resilient materials saves five dollars in response and recovery. This report makes it clear – Australia cannot keep doing things the same.

The latest annual report of our climate provides yet another damming indictment of political reluctance to take action to protect ourselves, our environment and our way of life.
 
All the military spending in the world cannot protect us from climate change.

But investments to kick start and rapidly roll out the much needed economy wide transition to a safe carbon free future will provide the protection we so desperately need.

We do not need new coal or new gas. We need a future. Our children need and deserve a future.

Extreme heat is the most lethal of natural disasters, and this latest BoM SotC report details the alarming rise in the number of days per year in Australia where going outside could kill us.

We can acclimatise to warm weather, but we cannot acclimatise to the heat extremes that will come if we do not act fast enough. 

Australia’s climate mayhem over the past few years is being repeated all cross the world. 

Whole districts are devastated. Businesses are going broke. Hundreds of families made homeless. Insurance is unaffordable and governments struggle to repair bridges and roads and provide alternative housing. Climate change is already wreaking havoc and destroying lives and livelihoods.
 
This is just the beginning! The world has only warmed about 1.1°C and will surpass 1.5°C in a few years as we march onto 3°C of warming.

We elect governments to protect our wellbeing. This government must prioritise protection from climate change by rapidly cutting our reliance on fossil fuels and assisting the nation to shift to climate safe alternatives.

The report paints a stark picture of Australia's experience of climate change. Average temperatures have risen almost 1.5 degrees already and there are more extreme heat days. The risk of droughts, heavy rainfall and flash floods is growing steadily, and there is clear evidence of larger and more frequent fires in recent years. No part of this continent is immune.

Climate change affects the health and wellbeing of all of us today. The health impacts of these changes, and the impacts of these changes on our health systems, are already profound and will grow dramatically over the next decade.

Health impacts are felt most intensely by groups already facing major health challenges. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voices need to be at the heart of how we face the coming storms. 

Our best chance is to face the reality of climate change together: protecting those most at risk, building robust and resilient communities and health systems, and rapidly reducing our emissions to stave off an even worse future. Collaborative action in these three areas will deliver massive economic, social and environmental benefits to Australia.

The science is clear and the solutions exist. Climate action is good for our health and the time for action is now.

This is a vitally important piece of work that will help Australian businesses forecast the increasing impacts of climate change upon their businesses. We are already seeing the impact of climate change upon farmers and food production, tourism on the Great Barrier Reef, the skiing industry, and the global impact upon the supply chains that we rely on.  
 
The banking sector has already been looking and stress testing their mortgage portfolios to understand the impacts. The Commonwealth Bank assessed it as a $45 billion risk. 
 
We need to understand how temperatures will change, how rainfall will change, how extreme weather like tropical cyclones will change, so that we can begin to prepare and adapt to hopefully protect our infrastructure and our businesses and lifestyles as much as possible.  
 
Of course, this is all battling against the tide if we don’t reduce our emissions urgently to reduce the impacts before they hit.

While the impacts on humans are increasingly manifesting through the destruction caused by recent bushfires and floods, there are impacts on natural systems that will also take decades to recover unless we actively intervene. We cannot underestimate the economic and social value of our blue and green spaces and the cascading impacts to human health and wellbeing.

Research shows that:
•    Having a sea view (as well as visiting blue space) has benefits – lower rates of poor mental health and depression
•    People who swim outdoors regularly have an increased connection to place and the natural environment
•    Greater levels of physical activity among people who live near the coast or other waterside locations 
•    People who live closer to the coast have greater belief in climate change and greater support for government regulation of carbon emissions
•    Living near the coast (<5 km vs. >20 km) is associated with higher likelihoods of several pro-environmental behaviours including: recycling, buying local/seasonal produce, walking/cycling instead of using a car for short journeys, and being a member of an environmental organisation
•    Compared to green spaces, blue spaces may be particularly important for promoting positive social relationships
 
Just as the Great Barrier Reef is susceptible to bleaching during marine heatwaves, so is the Great Southern Reef, the extensive rocky reef that forms part of Australia’s southern seascape that is home to many endemic species. Here, the growth and survival of primary producers such as kelps will also decline when challenged by floodwaters and marine heatwaves. 
 
The impacts on our urban ocean are also prominent, with rising sea levels reducing the effectiveness of natural drainage systems as well as our stormwater infrastructure, designed to rapidly remove surface runoff from our roads and streetscapes.
 
The State of the Climate 2022 gives us a clear directive: we must make systemic change to the way we live if we want to live well. Who wants to just exist? This is about us having a path to thrive not just survive.

Until recently, discussion of climate policy has been framed in terms of costly action now to mitigate damage in the future. The BOM report shows that we are already suffering severe damage as a result of past emissions. Damage will only get worse in the future. But if we are to avoid truly catastrophic damage, immediate global action is needed to eliminate net emissions.

Australia has committed to a net zero 2050 target, but our current policies are grossly inadequate to achieve this goal. The Albanese government must confront and reject those advocating denial and delay, in politics and the media.

The State of the Climate 2022 report produced by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology reinforces the fact that climate change is a current threat to a healthy country and planet. Many of the key points from the report, such as the increase in frequency of extreme heat events, and shifts in rainfall and streamflow disproportionately affect already vulnerable populations, remote and regional communities whose wellbeing is reliant on the land, and indigenous populations with close cultural connections to the environment.

In addition to the more obvious adaptation and mitigation strategies such as adoption of technological innovations, a move towards renewable energy solutions and other means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, there are many other response strategies that have been documented by the IPCC. One theme that I have inferred from the cumulative work undertaken by the IPCC is a complementary approach to seek local solutions to national and global problems.

Local knowledge, particularly indigenous knowledge, may contain important information about past changes and potential solutions. Seeking ideas from those most affected by climate change is a current gap in Australia. The State of the Climate 2022 report motivates the urgency of immediate action, which should include additional effort to fill this gap.

Many Australians understand from direct experience the impacts of climate change aren't described by the change in average temperature but the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. This report is a sobering and important contribution to understanding the impacts of climate change now and for our future. The key response to this report needs to be translating the science into how predicted increases in extremes impacts people and places. The health impacts of extreme weather events will continue to grow and preparation to protect communities against events like heatwaves is key. The challenge remains how we can prepare for this changing climate in a future that is likely to challenge our imagination with unprecedent events.  

Climate change is the major threat to health and wellbeing this century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions as fast as possible is so important for our future, as is attention to complexity of climate adaption. This report offers incentives for both rapid mitigation and for increased attention for climate adaptation in communities around Australia.

The latest Bureau of Meteorology State of the Climate report describes how the warming trend is continuing, both in Australia and around the world. The report can be summed up in eight simple words: more hots, hotter hots, wetter wets and drier dries. In fact, we have watched these exact scenarios play out across Australia over the last few years. 

In the face of these extremes, the burden on individuals, communities, and our health system continues to rise, with the brunt of these impacts felt by those who have the least capacity to adapt and respond. Climate change is making the already expanding equity gap even wider.

COP27 has made clear we have a mandate to prepare for our future – with a direct investment in research, adaptation initiatives and education, and a commitment through all levels of government to urgently reduce emissions.

Australia has experienced increased ambient temperatures, while there have been more and more wildfires resulting in serious wildfire-related air pollution. Evidence is clear that high temperatures (including heatwaves) and air pollution (including wildfire smoke) can increase the risks of mortality and morbidity (e.g., hospital admissions, emergency department visits, ambulance calls).

Pregnant women and births, children, the elderly, people with chronic diseases (cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes) and mental health, and those with low socioecomic status are greatly impacts by high temperatures and wildfire smoke. 

Climate action is urgently needed to reduce the health risks and burden caused by high temperatures and wildfires. We must put human health in the core of climate policies. It is urgent that we make policies for climate mitigation regarding reducing carbon emission and climate adaptation regarding protecting people from climate change.

The latest State of the Climate Report should be an urgent wake-up call for decision-makers at all levels. It documents the frightening changes that we have seen in recent years. While the global average temperature and sea surface temperature have increased by about a degree, the increase in our land temperatures is about one and a half times that. All the other changes are what the science 35 years ago was telling us to expect: less rainfall in the south, especially the south-west, increased rainfall in the north, worse fire seasons, more extreme rainfall events, stronger tropical cyclones, rising sea levels, increasing ocean acidity.

The scale of changes demonstrates that cleaning up our energy use is an urgent priority. It also shows that reducing our domestic emissions is not enough. We also need to reduce our exports of coal and gas. As the International Energy Agency has stated, it is just irresponsible to approve new fossil fuel projects. The urgent need is a realistic plan for a just transition away from coal and gas exports for the regions now dependent on those industries.

Figure 1 (annual global surface temperature anomalies) from the State of the Climate 2022 report is very important because it shows that global warming has accelerated in the most recent two decades from the 1990s. It also shows the modulation of temperature by the La Ninas of 2010-12 and 2020-22 and the impacts of extreme spring/summer rainfall in parts of eastern Australia in those years. 

The general decline in April-October rainfall over the same the period in southeast Australia is jet stream related, e.g., east coast lows have moved further south and east away from the coast. 

However, when the Indian Ocean Dipole enters a significantly negative phase in late winter/early spring and the southern annular mode is positive then flooding rains can result as they did this year and in 2016. 
The acceleration in warming also means the opposite can happen, i.e., long periods of little or no rain when climate drivers such as the IOD and the SAM are not favourable and there is no La Niña. 

Finally, while a 1 degree average rise in temperature means that the atmosphere can hold 7% more water vapour, it is the increased length of time or slow movement of rain systems over regions that contribute greatly to the amount of rain and flooding that occurs.

The challenges climate change is bringing to Australia, will mean we have an ever greater need for financial resources for reconstruction of housing and infrastructure. While we have traditionally relied on insurance as a means of financial protection, the increase in extreme-weather disasters means that many climate exposed properties will no longer be insurable.

Lack of access to insurance will drive those exposed to climate into greater inequality, as they can not rebuild their homes and may struggle to mitigate the risk. We urgently need to reconfigure how we insure climate-exposed assets and how we use insurance as a tool to support climate adaptation under these CSIRO scenarios.

The State of the Climate Report 2022 states that Australia is already experiencing sea level rise and that extreme sea levels will occur more frequently. Readers may want to better understand how increasing coastal hazards (flooding, erosion, and salinity intrusion) can be attributed to climate change driven sea level rise, and importantly, how these will affect Australians in the coming decades.

Researchers divide sea level extremes into 1) extremes occurring infrequently with larger consequence (e.g., storm events) and 2) exceedances occurring more frequently with lesser consequence (e.g., high tide flooding). Sea level rise is estimated over long periods to include variation in naturally occurring phenomena, typically as a rate in mm/yr. In reality, sea level changes in steps driving what appears as rapid onset of recurring extremes that were previously seen once in a lifetime, and in low elevation coastal zones, more regular nuisance flooding.

Increasing frequency limits recovery period and initiates tipping points, where beach systems can no longer be replenished between erosion events, and areas flood more often that insurers will cover. Ongoing research is focussed on identifying locations with greater potential for impact, being more specific as to the environments and conditions associated with greatest exposure.

The State of the Climate report provides clear evidence that Australia's climate is changing. The report again adds to the continuing body of evidence that human-induced climate change is being keenly felt across the country. The evidence in this report is wholly consistent with the peak bodies of evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the wide array of peer-reviewed literature by the world's top climate scientists.

Increases in Australian temperature are now nudging 1.5C above normal, which has been accompanied by an exceptional increase in extremely warm days. Although significant rains related to natural variability via a La Niña have prevailed for the last 3 years in the north of the country, the report shows that the decline in rainfall in the south during the cooler months has become entrenched. Many of the trends described in this report will continue without deep and aggressive cuts to carbon emissions.

As humanity continues to emit greenhouse gases at a near-record pace, we are rapidly warming the planet and changing the climate. The consequences of our continued use of fossil fuels are clear in Australia like elsewhere. The new State of the Climate report comes on the back of what feels like a never-ending series of extreme events from the drought and heat of 2019 and 2020 to the more recent floods.

Australia is experiencing more extreme heat, more fire weather, and more short-duration extreme rain. These types of extreme weather will only get worse until we approach global net-zero emissions. We must act quickly to decarbonise our economy to limit further damages from worsening extreme events.

This latest State of the Climate report paints a stark picture of the climate crisis Australia is experiencing, and the negative impacts on the health and wellbeing of our communities. The changes we are seeing in extreme heat, heavy rainfall and coastal inundation, fire weather and drought all further erode the health and wellbeing of our communities.

This is shown in our recent climate-related disasters, where we’ve seen deaths and illness from bushfires, floods and heatwaves, and also severe impacts on the capacity of our health system to adequately respond. The latest report again presents the science behind what we are already experiencing within our own lives and in our own communities, particularly over the last few years with the devastating fires and floods throughout the country. Sustained and transformative adaptation and mitigation responses are crucial, to ameliorate the enormous impacts that have also been highlighted recently in the IPCC’s WGII report.

Efforts to build community resilience to be able to respond and recover between climate-related disasters are vital, as are rapid reductions in our greenhouse gas emissions. Australia has a responsibility to respond to the climate challenge with the required tenacity and commitment, and this report again highlights the urgency to act.

The State of the Climate Report 2022 emphasises the immediacy of climate change impacts in Australia. While delegates at COP discuss climate policies aimed at keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees by 2100, this report reminds us we are almost there already in Australia. Our nation’s climate has warmed by 1.47 degrees since 1910, with a margin of error of about 0.3 degrees. As a result, there has been a measurable increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of the country and especially in southern Australia.

While the recent focus has been on floods, the clearest signal from observations and climate models is an increase in extreme heat and bushfire risk. Recent IPCC modelling shows that in a world that reaches 2 degrees of warming by 2100, a heatwave that occurs once every 50 years today is projected to occur on average every 3 – 4 years by the end of the century. In the land of droughts and flooding rains, we need to make sure we avoid planning for the most recent event.

The vast majority (~91%) of the extra heat that has been trapped on earth by our changing atmosphere, has been absorbed by the oceans. This has slowed the rates of warming we experience on land, but it is having huge impacts below the water. 

Global average surface sea temperatures have already increased by more than a degree with some regions around Australia increasing by significantly more than this. It’s in these ‘hotspots’ that we’re detecting some of the most alarming impacts of warming, including the loss of entire ecosystems. As well as this ‘background warming’ we’re also increasingly recording marine heatwaves. These are similar to heatwaves on the land and have been linked to mass coral bleaching events and complete phase shifts in other marine ecosystems.

Since the mid 2000s, marine heatwaves have gone from scientific oddities to occurrences that are now so frequent there are calls for the development of an early-warning system, similar to what we have in place for bushfires. 
As well as getting hotter, seawater is also expanding. Sea levels have risen already by 25 cm –a quarter of a metre – since the 1900s. The impacts of this on coastal infrastructure are already devastating, Rates of sea level rise are accelerating, so coastal inundation is likely to become a more frequent and severe problem in the future. 

Seawater is also becoming more acidic at accelerating rates, which has all sorts of complex biological impacts on thousands of marine animals. 

Although temperature, sea-level and pH have all fluctuated in the past, it’s the rate of change that is unprecedented and far too rapid for most organisms to adapt.

Australians are already paying the price of climate change in the form of lost homes, upturned lives and eye-watering insurance premiums as the extreme weather that has been long-predicted is now escalating. 

Coming at the end of three years of violent and perilous extreme drought, fire and flood, this report shows that Australia's lack of preparation for the effects of climate change is an acute and urgent challenge that is only going to escalate.