NEWS BRIEFING: Fossil fuel emissions now above pre-pandemic levels - Annual Global Carbon Budget

The report makes it clear that CO2 emissions are not declining.  Whilst there was a clear reduction during the pandemic, emissions have rebounded and in 2022 they increased by 1%.  Whilst it is good to see that the rate of increase has slowed from about 3% during the early 2000s to about 0.5% over the past decade,  coal and oil emissions continue to increase and deforestation emissions remain high. 

The only country to report a decrease in emissions is China which in 2022 declined by 0.9% as a consequence of significant lockdowns and constrained activities which contributed to slower economic growth. The rebound in aviation has contributed to a clear increase in oil emissions and the drop in property development and associated declines in the cement sector contributed to one of the most significant decline in emissions. 

These figures highlight the fact that over the past few years, emissions reductions have largely been responsive to the social and economic changes generated by the pandemic, the war, and distributional obstructions.  They have not been the response of fundamental changes to social and economic behaviour.  At this rate, the world will exceed 1.5 degrees warming in 9 years.  To prevent catastrophic global warming, systemic changes to carbon intensive activities are immediately required.  

Fossil CO2 emissions are again going to reach a new record high this year with no signs of an immediate peak and decline as is desperately needed to address the climate crisis.

The climate crisis requires crisis-like actions which I don’t see happening. It is a mistake to think that the energy transition will be a smooth transition, that is what has happened in the past over a half a century timeframe, a time we don’t have available.

The reality we are facing is that global emissions of CO2 are not decreasing.

Instead of being on track to reduce emissions, the latest data from The Global Carbon Budget (2022) shows global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 1.0% in 2022. If current emissions levels persist, there is a 50% chance that warming of 1.5°C will be exceeded in 9 years/by the end of the decade.

Australia must play a stronger role in cutting greenhouse emissions by getting land-clearing under control and by taking responsibility for all the greenhouse gas emissions to which we contribute, especially the through the export of coal and gas.

The emissions from Australian coal and gas exports are more than a 1,000 MtCO2-e – double our total domestic emissions.

We need to face up to the cold hard reality that Australia is one of the world’s largest suppliers of cheap tax-payer subsidised fossil fuels – and therefore we are a major contributor to climate change. 

It is a ‘gun dealer’s defence’ to absolve responsibility for the harm our coal and gas will cause when they are burned in other countries. The fact is that supplying fossil fuels are a crucial part of the carbon equation and ought to be allocated some share of the blame.

I am at COP27 and just witnessed an amazing presentation from Al Gore on his Climate Trace research that gets data on actual emissions of greenhouse gases from satellite data. It blows away all the data being presented in the Global Carbon Project which is based on self reporting by nations.

Climate Trace shows that oil and gas are the big error as they only report around half of their actual emissions generated in production of their fuels. Actual emissions that include methane leaks shows oil and gas are perhaps only reporting one third of their real emissions. Other major errors are made by power plants. The top 500 sources of emissions globally emit more than all of the US emissions with 51% coming from power plants.

He had a lot of other positive things to say about the $66 trillion available from financiers for net zero, but the data errors from Climate Trace overshadows much of this. He did have a slide saying ‘In September of 2022, Australia adopted an historic new law that would reduce its emissions 43% below 2005 levels by 2030.’

Now we have to get on top of these recalcitrant oil and gas producers who are out of control.

The Global Carbon Project's annual report card throws cold water on climate policy optimism. Despite all the net zero pledges at Glasgow, and despite the apparent success of wind and solar, carbon emissions in 2022 will reach a new, historic peak. Emissions from oil consumption are up on account of aviation resuming. Emissions from coal are up, as energy shortages see many countries, including Germany and India, return to coal. The more positive news is that since 2016 global emissions have only increased moderately. Unfortunately, that means the carbon dioxide is continuing to accumulate in the atmosphere. In 2022 atmospheric CO2 will average 417 parts per million - more than 50% above pre-industrial levels.

For Australia this all means increased probability of extreme weather events, floods and fires. Australia's per capita emissions of 15.1 tonnes CO2 annually are almost twice those in China (8 tonnes) and more than seven times higher than in India (1.9 tonnes). Meanwhile, Australia's record projected $450 billion in resource and energy export earnings from 2022-3 will likely prove to have been an historical high*. As the global economy slows, the price paid for our fossil fuel exports is set to fall regardless of whether climate policies finally begin to eat into demand.