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How common is Long COVID?

Embargoed until: Publicly released:
Peer-reviewed: This work was reviewed and scrutinised by relevant independent experts.

Simulation/modelling: This type of study uses a computer simulation or mathematical model to predict an outcome. The original values put into the model may have come from real-world measurements (eg: past spread of a disease used to model its future spread).

Using computer simulations based on real-world data from 1.2m people with symptomatic COVID-19 from 22 countries, international scientists, including an Australian, say around 6.2% of people with COVID-19 are likely to experience at least one of the three Long COVID symptom clusters three months after infection. The three clusters are persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, cognitive problems, or ongoing respiratory problems. Women were more likely to have Long COVID than men, the researchers say, as were patients who ended up in hospital, particularly if intensive care was required. On average, Long COVID symptoms persisted for nine months in hospitalised patients and four months in non-hospitalised patients, although 15.1% of patients continued to experience symptoms 12 months after infection.

Journal/conference: JAMA

Link to research (DOI): 10.1001/jama.2022.18931

Organisation/s: The University of Queensland, University ofWashington, USA, Global Burden of Disease Long COVID Collaborators

Funder: Erasmus University Medical Center received funding from the ZonMW COVID-19 Programme, Laurens (the Netherlands), and Rijndam Rehabilitation. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington received funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Uppsala University received funding from the Knut and AliceWallenburg Foundation, the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation, the Swedish Kidney Foundation, the Swedish Society of Medicine, and the Swedish Research Council. The Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research received funding from the Queensland Department of Health. The Iran National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Health Researchers of Iran, and theWorld Health Organization provided funding for Drs Haghjooy Javanmard, Mohammadifard, and Sarrafzadegan. Cooperation’s p/f Krunborg and Borgartun, the Velux Foundation, the Faroese Research Council, the Faroese Parkinson’s Association, and the Faroese Health Insurance Fund provided funding for Dr Petersen. The National Institute on Aging and the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities provided funding for Dr Xu. The Benificus Foundation provided funding for Dr Adolph. The National Science Foundation provided funding for Drs Aravkin and Reiner. The Ministry of Health (Rome, Italy) and the Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo (Trieste, Italy) provided funding for Dr Monasta. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan provided funding for Dr Nomura. The South African Medical Research Council provided funding for Dr Wiysonge.

Media release

From: JAMA

Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters After COVID-19

About The Study: In this modeling study with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021 and survived the acute phase, an estimated 6.2% experienced at least one of the three Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) three months after acute infection onset. The risk of Long COVID was greater in females and in those who needed hospitalization for the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly among those needing intensive care unit care.

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