Healthcare inequity could hide another COVID-19 outbreak in NZ
Simulation/modelling: This type of study uses a computer simulation or mathematical model to predict an outcome. The original values put into the model may have come from real-world measurements (eg: past spread of a disease used to model its future spread).
Te Pūnaha Matatini researchers have modelled how COVID-19 could spread through different groups in the New Zealand population. The study, which has not yet been formally peer-reviewed, finds that Māori and Pacific communities may be at heightened risk due to inequities in health and healthcare access. They say it tracks with Singapore's experience, where a second outbreak has emerged in the migrant worker community, due to crowded housing and lack of access to primary healthcare or sick leave. The researchers say the evidence suggests urban Pacific communities are likely to be at high risk, as well as remote communities, including rural Māori communities. The study also looked at age groups, finding that an increase in contact rates among children as they go back to school is unlikely to significantly increase the number of cases, unless it also increases contact among adults as they interact with the school.
Organisation/s: Te Pūnaha Matatini
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