EXPERT REACTION: US Climate Summit 2021

The climate summit announcement by the Biden administration to pledge cutting US emissions by up to 52% by the end of the decade, to establish a carbon pollution-free energy sector by 2035, net zero emissions economy by no later than 2050 and set up an international climate finance plan to underwrite the transition to a decarbonized global economy is a powerful step towards addressing the profound threat represented by climate change. These announcements will put significant pressure on Scott Morrison to dramatically increase Australia's climate change commitments.

Whilst the federal government released plans of a $1billion bilateral energy security agreement with South Australia earlier in the week, which seeks to accelerate renewable technology through funding and the development of a new interconnector, the decision to accelerate onshore gas production is retrograde. Gas is a fossil fuel and has no place in the future energy framework of Australia if we are to rapidly decelerate greenhouse gas emissions and follow the lead of the Biden administration. What is required in Australia, as in the United States, is a dramatic and united escalation of government and communities commitment to reduce emissions.

As in the United States this is best supported through implementation of a national climate task force, focused upon the implementation of innovative standards, incentives and programs to rapidly facilitate a transition to: a clean and resilient energy grid, an efficient electric vehicle framework, the rapid escalation of green hydrogen to forge cleaner steel and cement, the future design of carbon capture sequestration and the complete abandonment of fossil fuel generation.  This is only possible if Australia shows a preparedness to not only mobilise private sector investment but activate multiple regulatory and policy pathways focused upon decarbonisation and use its procurement power to fully support markets for support low and zero-carbon industries and goods.

Climate Change is the greatest moral challenge of our times as highlighted by a former Prime Minister. At the same time, Sir Nicholas Stern in the United Kingdom released the landmark report on the economics of climate change. We currently have a global leaders summit on climate change. However, unlike the United States which has committed to 52% reduction in greenhouse gases, Australia has been criticised for its lack of action with economic reasons being touted for a lack of swift action, characterised by policy paralysis on climate change for more than a decade.

Sadly, the irony is that it is this very economic imperative that requires Australia to respond more effectively to climate change. As Stern highlighted, climate change has economic consequences, and risk and uncertainty arising from climate change has the potential to adversely affect future economic activity. Australian companies have acknowledged the economic implications of climate change; we need the government to show leadership and place Australia at the forefront of climate change mitigation.

This will require the transition to a low carbon economy through a reconceptualisation of the economic effects of climate change; one that focuses on the long term and not on short term pain.

For some months, Prime Minister Morrison has been edging towards announcing a 2050 zero net emissions target for Australia. It is evident that such a commitment will be made sooner or later, if only to avoid the imposition of taxes on Australian exports to the EU and US.  

In these circumstances it is difficult to understand why the government went to the climate summit with nothing but spurious claims about discredited technologies like carbon capture and storage.

To avoid crossing thresholds, much more aggressive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions than Australia is currently committed to are urgently required. While technology is important, we actually have the technologies and capabilities to make very significant cuts now. What is actually missing is the will by the Coalition Government to make this happen. The current Government’s intransigence is putting millions in the World and the natural environment at risk! 

Australia is a bit of an embarrassment on all things climate - dragging the chain and clinging to fossil fuels while other nations are stepping up.

We are one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change — we should be at the forefront of action, pushing for rapid decarbonisation and emissions reductions.  And leaving our vast coal reserves in the ground.

Our national government is failing to play a responsible role in the concerted global effort to slow climate change. With the USA now committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030, Japan by 46 per cent and Canada by 40 to 45 per cent, our stated target of 26 to 28 per cent is woefully inadequate. More seriously, no qualified independent expert thinks that inadequate target will be achieved on current trends. The Commonwealth government is still irresponsibly supporting new fossil fuel developments, not just individual projects like Adani but whole new provinces like the Beetaloo Basin gas field. 

The electricity industry is moving rapidly toward cleaner supply technologies, but that has been achieved despite the open hostility of the Commonwealth government, not just attacking State governments like the Weatherill regime in South Australia for supporting solar and wind but pressuring the industry to keep old coal-fired power stations running. As Dr Finkel’s recent Quarterly Essay explained, getting to zero emissions by 2050 will require a wide range of policies to support renewable energy supply technologies, more efficient use of energy, zero-carbon transport, clean manufacturing and measures for agriculture to improve soil carbon levels. 

While the recent announcement of funds to support development of hydrogen as a clean fuel should be welcomed, it is disappointing to see hundreds of millions more taxpayers’ dollars tipped into the black hole of ‘carbon capture and storage’. We can safely predict that these projects will only capture and store public funds. 

As a former Prime Minister pointed out on Q & A last night, a slogan is not a policy. All we are getting from the Commonwealth government at the moment are facile slogans. We can anticipate that more responsible administrations will soon begin to apply economic sanctions to show their disapproval of our government’s masterly inaction.

President Biden’s Leaders’ Climate Summit has made clear that the internal dynamics of the Liberal party room which prevent Australia from adopting effective climate policies, have now also become a significant irritant in the Australia-US relationship. Climate action is not just central to the Biden Administration's domestic agenda. Climate is also the shared challenge which President Biden hopes to use to restore the US's reputation for leadership. In a measure of how far Australia is in the cold, Saudi King Salman and Brazil's Bolsonaro were both placed higher on the speakers list.

At this summit, leaders have announced i) bold symbolic emissions reduction goals ii) specific regulatory and industrial policies for near-term decarbonisation & iii) commitments to the science, technology and innovation that will make the long-term goal of net-zero emissions feasible. Since party-room dynamics rule out everything else, PM Morrison spoke primarily about technology and innovation. However, the Morrison government has made and broken innovation pledges before. For example, In 2015 Australia joined President Obama's Mission Innovation (MI) initiative and along with 24 other governments promised to double expenditure on low-carbon R&D (to $208million by 2020). At latest reports, the Morrison government has still has not achieved this modest ‘technology and innovation’ goal.

Not only is this energy discussion all happening in the midst of imperatives from climate change, it is happening in the midst of a tremendous scientific and technological disruption: advanced manufacturing.

Additive technologies, new materials science, digital design and industry 4.0 are transforming manufacturing. Australia stands to win big - with dividends in terms of great jobs, sovereign capability and export revenue all there for the taking. So, we need to get our energy mix right from this perspective also.

Hydrogen could be a clean energy that transforms our energy market, but there is one big roadblock.

Hydrogen wreaks havoc in many alloys, leading to embrittlement that can cause catastrophic failure. This is a very serious issue for any industry in which structures are exposed to hydrogen and is a limiting factor for the production, transport, storage and use of hydrogen in a potential hydrogen economy. 

The development of materials for a hydrogen economy is a challenge that requires a coherent and coordinated national effort. Addressing this issue requires long-term investment in the emerging generations of researchers and engineers who will serve the hydrogen energy sector for the next 50 years.

There are many skill sets that are required to solve the hydrogen embrittlement problem, but at its core will be metallurgy and metallurgical engineering. In this aspect, Australian researchers are already active and making important new contributions to the hydrogen embrittlement problem. 

For example, to understand exactly how hydrogen interacts with metals at the atomic level – which is the critical information for designing a metal that can better withstand embrittlement – researchers at the University of Sydney developed a unique-in-the-world microscope that can directly observe hydrogen atoms in metallic samples.

Australia already has the ingredients for success in the global race for a hydrogen future, but first our universities, industries and government must work together and lead the world in finding the answer to hydrogen embrittlement. While the path to a hydrogen future isn’t an easy one, if we can solve hydrogen embrittlement we be much closer to achieving a decarbonised energy portfolio, and creating a new, clean export market in Australia.

Countries have moved forward in the Climate Leaders Summit by announcing new climate ambitions. They are definitely encouraging but more needs to be done to have the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reductions necessary to achieve the target of remaining well below 2 and 1.5 degrees.

The announcement, in particular from US just before the summit, with over 50 per cent GHG reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, lifted the game for other major emitting counties to follow. The Republic of Korea announced no new funding for coal projects, which is encouraging given the need for reducing and eliminating the need for new coal plants.Australia, by not announcing increased climate ambition at the summit, was a very disappointing outcome, given its huge potential in renewable and clean energy sources and the climate impacts it faces.

Another aspect in achieving climate goals will be the necessary level of climate finance flowing to developing countries to facilitate the required climate mitigation and adaptation in those counties. Here the rich countries will need to commit the resources promised under the Paris Agreement.

At the Leaders Summit on Climate, the Australian Government proposed using technology to combat climate change. However, financial incentives to lower carbon emissions will also be required. Australia leads the world in the implementation of roof-top solar. That was achieved through government policy, giving householders financial incentives to install solar panels. The same can be achieved in other areas, but only through a combination of technology and financial policy settings. An example is “Vehicle to Grid” (V2G), or in the Australian case "Ute to Shed".

My engineering colleagues at the Australian National University are researching how the batteries in electric cars can store renewable power, to feed the grid when the sun isn’t shining. Australians love their big SUVs and Utes, soon they will be buying electric ones with large battery capacity. I am looking at how an app could be used to remind the householder to keep their vehicle plugged into power the grid. With some clever technology and a small financial incentive, Australian households could take the lead with the world's biggest virtual battery.

Energy planning means the process of developing long-range policies to help guide the future of a local, national, regional, or even the global energy system. It has played a strong role in setting the framework for regulations in the energy sector (for example, influencing what type of power plants might be built or what prices were charged for electricity). 

Sustainable energy planning takes a more holistic approach to the problem of planning for future energy needs. It is based on a structured decision-making process. My research aims to enhance the reliability and economic efficiency of our electricity supply networks, allowing them to reliably supply quality electricity in a more cost-effective and sustainable manner with advanced engineering and computational methods. 

This research area is of great significance, as it addresses the environmental impacts of energy consumption and production, particularly considering the threat of global climate change, which is caused largely by emissions of greenhouse gases from the world's energy systems. 

My current research focuses on transforming Australia into a hydrogen powerhouse by building enabling capacity in hydrogen innovation in a short timeframe and developing a comprehensive value chain energy planning model for possible hydrogen economy scenarios in Australia.

The Morrison Government has painted themselves into a corner on climate action. While publicly the Government has been making a case that their relative inaction has been to protect the national economic interest, the Australian business community has become increasingly clear about supporting positive action.  

The Business Council of Australia and the Australian Industry Group both support strong action on climate. The economic regulators, the RBA, ASIC and APRA, have all been speaking out and preparing for the risks posed to the economy. Perhaps the most implicitly confrontational action has been the commitment by the Climate League 2030, a grouping of Australian super and investment firms with close to $1 trillion under management, to influence the firms they have invested in to reduce their emissions sufficiently to meet a 45% national reduction by 2030, in line with reaching net zero by 2050. They have judged the Government’s 26-28% reduction to be wholly inadequate and are using their market power to trump Government climate policy.  

2021 now looks like it will be the year that the Morrison Government gets squeezed by the global community. With the UK Government’s 78% reduction target by 2035 and the US Government’s 50% reduction by 2030, Australia’s weak and insufficient targets are standing out for the self-serving and global freeriding they represent. The US has now stated clearly that they will put increasing pressure on countries not pulling their weight; surely a veiled threat to Australia.  

The Morrison Government might get through this Summit without being totally shamed, but it’s only the beginning of the global climate gauntlet for this year. The G7 event in June, where we are the special guest of the UK, could be the event where a focused ‘intervention’ takes place, making sure we are contributing fairly come COP26 in November.

As an ocean scientist, I am excited to see the new US regime taking leadership to tackle the existential threat of human-caused climate change. Our oceans have helped buffer effects of CO2 somewhat until now but are reaching breaking point. Apart from the huge loss of biodiversity there will be reduced food security, especially for the millions relying on fish as their primary protein source. I have researched changes in reefs in eastern Australia first-hand for nearly three decades and have witnessed substantial change in kelp beds and shifting of fish species which I have linked to climate change

With Climate Change being one of the key challenges of modern global civilisation and a threat to geopolitical stability around the world, Australia must, and can be part of the solution. Moreover, we are at the leading edge of grid transformation and have the highest per capital rooftop solar uptake in the world causing some of the expected technology challenges and opportunities that the energy transition exposes.

Australia can level-up to becoming an energy technology powerhouse by getting behind this transition through the development of local R&D and Cleantech industries. This will provide a stream of high-paid jobs and high-value exports.

Australia's unique situation combined with well trained graduates and workforce in engineering and artificial intelligence can create a whole new energy industry in Australia.

Renewables: the fastest change in global energy systems in history is underway. 

Australia is the global #2 for per capita deployment rate of renewables. Australia can make deep (70%) cuts in emissions by 2035 at low or negative cost by deploying solar and wind faster.

Wholesale spot electricity prices halved in the past year because of a flood of new solar & wind. The fact that Australia is reducing electricity emissions and prices is truly significant. This means that deep emissions reductions will have negligible cost.

Solar & wind can readily decarbonize electricity systems. Electrification of most land transport (via electric vehicles) and heating (via electric heat pumps and electric furnaces) is straightforward using existing widely deployed technology. This would eliminate ~70% of emissions with an insignificant impact on electricity prices. 

The Commonwealth Government urgently needs to facilitate additional powerlines to efficiently bring new solar and wind power to the cities and to strongly interconnect the states. It also needs to strongly promote electric vehicles, including with a ban on sales of conventional cars by 2028." 

Andrew has provided additional information here.

Australia has the third-largest marine jurisdiction in the world, and within that, some of the fastest-warming coastal regions in the world. Our south-west coast is warming at around three times the global average and our south-east coast almost four times the global average. Marine environments contribute at least $50 billion to Australia’s economy, and oceans are predicted to be one of the fastest-growing economic domains over the next decade, with the potential to underpin significant growth. However, much of this potential economic growth is concentrated on the comparatively under-funded southern temperate regions.

The ‘Great Southern Reef’ for example – an interconnected system of rocky reefs and kelp forests spanning 8000km along the southern part of Australia where 70% of our population lives - has already lost around one million hectares of kelp forest linked to ocean warming and marine heatwaves. Hundreds of marine species, many critical for fisheries, tourism, culture and recreation, or affecting human health (eg stinging species, disease etc), have already been formally documented as undertaking climate-driven changes in distribution (aka shifting where they live) as a function of ocean warming.

Reducing carbon emissions is critically important but we must also invest heavily in adaptation over the next few decades as the impact of climate change on our natural systems will continue for some time due to the ‘locked in warming’ we will continue to experience.

The Bureau of Meteorology have not provided any comments, but would like to encourage people to refer to the State of Climate 2020 and the Bureau's Annual Climate Statement 2020.