EXPERT REACTION: NSW coal seam gas project and QLD coalmine approved

We know that human-caused climate change is intensifying much of the extreme weather we are seeing around the world, particularly the damaging heatwaves like those we've seen in recent summers in Australia.

To limit future climate changes, it is vital that we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Many countries are now committing to a switch to renewable energy sources and a net-zero carbon emissions target by the middle of this century with the intent of avoiding the worst projections of climate change impacts.

Australia would greatly benefit from limiting climate change in line with the Paris Agreement and following a low-carbon greener future.  

There is an ongoing dialogue amongst those who favour gas that shifting from coal to gas as an energy source is good for the climate. This has been repeatedly shown to be an unhelpful diversion from the urgency of reducing all fossil fuel mining and burning. Emissions from gas are routinely significantly underestimated and do not provide the major reductions we need. The approval of the Narrabri development in the face of substantial risk to climate, the environment, water, health and community wellbeing is a clear demonstration of how influences favouring gas are simultaneously hindering transitions to truly low emission, cheaper renewable energies and reliable storage in the energy market.

The Narrabri development, and plans for a gas – rather than renewable –powered replacement for the ageing Liddell coal plant appear to be major steps away from the Australian Energy Market Operators’ inspiring, and necessary, Integrated Systems Plan. The Plan maps out a rapid transition from fossil fuels to wind, solar and storage; achieving 96 per cent replacement by 2040. This Plan is the only vision Australia has to make a decent contribution to GHG emissions abatement and to our chances for clean, safe, healthy and affordable domestic energy system. While gas has a role, it is shortlived and strategic, and not requiring all of risks and losses associated with the Narrabri gas project and ancillary infrastructures. 

• What might this mean for Australia’s emissions? 

In 2020, we are in a climate emergency; this is not a joke; it is a lethal reality. The signals of climate change are everywhere, from bushfires to human health statistics, at just 1°C warming. Science tells us we have, at best, nine years to plunge into a steep, downward trajectory of CO2 and methane emissions to limit warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C. These decisions further demonstrate Australia’s failure to respond maturely, morally and ethically to this emergency. To open up new gas and new coal when it’s clear that the only path to a decent healthy future is rapid, unhindered transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies, shows no regard for current and future wellbeing. 

• What are the implications in terms of us reaching our obligations under the Paris Agreement? 

The implications were already poor for Australia, and now, given these are new and fully avoidable expansions, the nation demonstrates no intention to alter its politically-driven fossil fuel ambitions. GHG emissions have risen, largely due to gas mining, for some time now and these developments show that current politicians on both sides respect no upper boundary to Australia’s contribution to intensifying global warming and human suffering. These are just a few of the many extensive fossil fuel developments planned. 

The Paris Agreement was just a starting point. Australia’s minimal target was not meant to remain unchanged – the Agreement required parties to ramp up emission reductions at each Annual Conference of Parties gatherings. Instead, it was very clearly stated at the 2018 COP24 meetings in Katowice, Poland that the US and Australian governments had no intention of “keeping their gas and oil in the ground” (https://www.theguardian.com/ environment/2018/dec/11/australia-only-nation-to-join-us-at-pro-coal-event-at-cop24-climate-talks). These two approvals, and so many developments in the pipeline, will drive GHG emissions up not down as required, and show little regard for global responsibility.   

Queensland’s Labor government approves a new coal mine with a life of 80 years! NSW’s Coalition government approves 850 new coal seam gas wells!

People keep talking about Australia’s political climate wars. What climate wars? There are no climate wars in Australia.

The Coalition and Labor are in total agreement - let’s keep digging up coal and gas, let’s keep burning it and exporting it. Let’s turn global warming into global roasting and let’s keep ruining people’s health and killing people with air pollution and climate change.

There is no chance of Australia adopting a serious climate change policy - one that is environmentally sustainable and protects people’s livelihoods and health - until one of the major parties completely changes its climate policies or we dump both of them in the dustbin of history.

The approval of the Narrabri gas project and the coking coalmine in the Galilee Basin represent a significant step backwards for Australia's climate change imperatives. 

Decarbonisation requires all fossil fuels to stay in the ground if we are to stay within the 2°C and reach net zero by 2050.

Australia is already emitting too much carbon and the approval of two new fossil fuel projects will only exacerbate this. 

The Narrabri gas project has a life span of 25 years and has been predicted to significantly impede Australia's total abatement obligations. 

The Galilee coking coalmine has a life span of 80 years, is also carbon intensive and its approval appears to overlook the global slump in coking coal prices as demand falls worldwide. 

Ultimately, the approval of these two resource-intensive projects is hugely concerning.

It will make the task of meeting our 2030 obligations much more difficult and will, inevitably,  reduce the timespan before we exceed our notional  2°C carbon budget. 

The approvals may result in Australia becoming a global carbon debtor, an completely unnecessary and irresponsible status given our enormous capacity to generate and store renewable energy.

New gas supply from Narrabri will do nothing to reduce the cost of gas to consumers, because it will have higher production costs than existing gasfields. For the same reason, if used to generate electricity, it will do nothing to bring down wholesale electricity prices, and, in any case, will not be needed.  

Comprehensive modelling by AEMO, for its 2020 Integrated System Plan, shows that, under all plausible future scenarios, the level of total annual gas generation will be much below the current level. Gas generators will need to continue to be available, but only to operate for occasional short periods each year, when supply from other generators is insufficient to meet demand.  

Australia needs to use less gas, not more, to achieve the large greenhouse gas emission reductions it must make if it is to contribute its fair share to combat global warming.

These projects will never get built if the finance community continue to recognise their role in ensuring the Net Zero by 2050 transition is enabled, not dinosaur projects like these.

Governments are approving such projects as they don’t have proper tools to include Net Zero assessments, but finance is still required and can simply say no.

The newly approved coal mine produces metallurgical coal, used in steelmaking. Unlike the case of thermal coal for electricity generation, which is already uncompetitive with renewables, alternative technologies for new steel production are still at an early stage.

Nevertheless, a combination of new technologies, reduced demand for steel as growth slows in China, and improvements in recycling mean that the long-term prospects for metallurgical coal are limited.

Commitments to reach net zero emissions by 2050 and 2060, made by most nations (though not Australia) mean that projections of an 80-year life for a new metallurgical coal mine are fanciful. However, it is likely that the mine may operate profitably for 10 to 15 years.

These two approvals provide further evidence that Australian policymakers, whether Labor, Liberal or National, continue to chase a mirage of fossil fuel-driven prosperity. The world is entering an increasingly perilous time, characterised by rising sea levels, unbearable heatwaves, falling biodiversity, and increased bushfire risk.

Within 50 years, if current trends continue, pervasive global poverty, or even the collapse of civilisation could occur, particularly via the 'tertiary' consequences of climate change, including mass migration, spreading famines and resource-scarcity-driven wars.

It is thus imperative that all high-income countries urgently reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Gas is claimed as a transitional fuel, with lower greenhouse gas emissions than coal, but the advantage is much reduced, and in some cases completely eliminated, once fugitive emissions of methane are considered.

The world also has to exchange coking coal for alternatives such as the burning of rubber tyres or the use of hydrogen, generated by solar and wind-driven electricity. The justification of extracting fossil fuels to create jobs is hollow; climate change will destroy jobs. Job-intensive, energy-harnessing alternatives should instead be promoted.

I long for a time when national leaders will consider the long term future, instead of the next few months.

Approving the Pillaga-Narrabri fossil gas project locks in major groundwater risks for decades to come – experience shows that the environmental assessment and approval of coal seam gas projects to date always underestimates groundwater impacts.

There are better alternatives, such as renewable energy, which do not carry the same risks, especially for climate change.

Approving the Narrabri gas project is criminally irresponsible. Climate change is accelerating. To avoid catastrophic consequences, we need to be reducing our use of fossil fuels, not expanding. Every credible assessment of our energy future shows that we will be using less gas, not more. There are cleaner and less expensive alternatives.

Approving a mine for coking coal is not as irresponsible as supporting mining of thermal coal, but it is still questionable. There is now significant investment in research to develop alternative processes for steelmaking to avoid the emissions involved in using coke. Expanding production of coking coal will create pressure to prolong the old technology and slow the transition to cleaner processes.

Australia’s energy policy is currently driven by short-term employment imperatives rather than long term global environmental change.

"There are very real consequences for the future of the Great Barrier Reef.
 
Coral reefs are the planet’s most endangered ecosystems and the Great Barrier Reef is highly threatened – this summer our reef experienced the third mass bleaching event in five years.

A study last week showed just 4.1 per cent of Australians interviewed fully understood that mitigating climate change was critical to the Great Barrier Reef's future.

Fossil fuel extraction and use is fundamentally incompatible with our goal of 'urgent and rapid action to reduce global warming' needed to protect the Reef’s health.

These proposed developments indicate to Australians and the international community that our government hasn’t understood this either.

The consequences of failing to tackle climate change will be further coral bleaching events, drought and bushfires, with associated impacts on our landscapes, health and economy." 

These projects will clearly impact negatively on Australia’s performance in mitigating the global problem of climate change for years to come. Sadly, they also divert us from taking advantage of the huge economic opportunities available to Australia in renewable-energy-based, high-value-added minerals processing and manufacturing.

As a sunburnt country with expanses of available land, we are in a unique position to build a renewable electricity-based manufacturing/processing sector which will provide more local jobs per dollar invested and enable us to capitalise on growing markets for low emissions products overseas.