Media release
From: Springer NatureThe disruption of species communities as a result of climate change will be abrupt and could start as early as the current decade, suggests a study in Nature this week.
As the planet warms, species will be pushed to the edge of, or beyond, their ideal thermal niche limits and into unprecedented temperature regimes. It has been difficult to determine when and how quickly this shift might happen, as most projections are based on single time points or individual species. To better understand these changes, Alex Pigot and colleagues assess the current thermal niches for over 30,000 species on land and in sea and estimate when they are likely to experience unprecedented temperatures.
The authors use annual climate model data from 1850 to 2005 to identify the warmest mean temperatures experienced by 30,652 species of birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fish, and other marine animals and plants. They then use climate projections up to the year 2100 to predict when species within 100-km squares globally might experience temperatures beyond these limits for a period of at least 5 years. They predict an abrupt disruption to biodiversity within these ecological assemblages as the exposure to unprecedented temperatures for multiple species is likely to occur simultaneously.
Under climate change scenarios in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, these unprecedented temperature regimes are predicted to be reached by 2030 in tropical oceans and by 2050 in tropical forests and higher latitudes. However, if warming is kept to under 2 ° C above preindustrial temperatures, less than 2% of these assemblages will experience abrupt exposure events, the authors propose. Delaying such disruptions will require large and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, they conclude.
