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3 years in, COVID-19 may still be able to spread from humans back into bats

Embargoed until: Publicly released:
Peer-reviewed: This work was reviewed and scrutinised by relevant independent experts.

Simulation/modelling: This type of study uses a computer simulation or mathematical model to predict an outcome. The original values put into the model may have come from real-world measurements (eg: past spread of a disease used to model its future spread).

US scientists say the SARS-CoV-2 virus may still be able to spread from humans to other mammals, including back into the bats we think it came from, despite three years of changes as it evolved as a parasite of humans. They used computer models of the virus to investigate this because spreading the actual virus between mammalian hosts in a lab could be potentially dangerous. Their simulations suggest that while evolution has tailored the virus to its human hosts to some degree, potential spread between different species of mammals is still possible more than three years after the original spread from bats to humans.

Journal/conference: Royal Society Open Science

Link to research (DOI): 10.1098/rsos.220600

Organisation/s: Rochester Institute of Technology, USA

Funder: The authors received no funding for this study.

Media release

From: The Royal Society

Persistent cross-species SARS-CoV-2 variant infectivity predicted via comparative molecular dynamics simulation

The ability of SARS-CoV-2 virus to continue move between human and other mammal populations has been sporadically documented, but not systematically analyzed. Wet lab experiments along these lines would be potentially dangerous, however computer-based simulations of viral-host protein binding interactions can be safely studied to infer cross-species infectivity. Here, we explore whether the evolving human variants of concern arising during the pandemic can easily re-infect the bats from which they originally came. We demonstrate that while some viral specificity to humans has evolved, potential cross-mammalian infectivity has persisted more than 3 years after the original spillover from bats to humans.

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