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ENSO neutral conditions expected as La Niña fades, but El Niño chances rise
- Weak La Niña is fading
- Neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) are expected until July
- Model forecasts indicate possibility of El Niño
- Spring predictability barrier adds to uncertainty
- Seasonal forecasts support climate sensitive sectors and humanitarian operations
The recent weak La Niña event is expected to fade into ENSO-neutral conditions which may swing to a warming El Niño episode later this year, according to the latest Update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
El Niño refers to the periodic large-scale warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. It usually has the opposite effects of La Niña on weather and rainfall patterns.
WMO Global Producing Centres forecasts indicate a 60% chance of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions – neither El Niño or La Niña during March–May 2026, rising to a 70% chance during April-June.
During May-July, the chance of neutral conditions is 60%, whilst the chance of an El Niño increases steadily to around 40%.
However, forecast uncertainty increases at longer lead times. Predictions issued at this time of year are typically less reliable due to the so-called boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known limitation affecting ENSO outlook skill.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management. They are also a key part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, and thus save lives,” she said.
Naturally occurring large-scale climate events such as El Niño and La Niña are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures in the long-term, exacerbating extreme weather and climate events, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
To provide a more comprehensive climate outlook, WMO also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU). These take into account the influence of key climate variability patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode or the Indian Ocean Dipole. The updates also monitor the global and regional anomalies of surface temperature and precipitation and their evolution over the upcoming season.
The latest Update says that for March to May 2026, there is a widespread global signal for above-average land surface temperatures. Rainfall predictions in the equatorial Pacific show a lingering La Niña-like pattern, but in other parts of the world the signal is more mixed.
