Trouble on the horizon: how to make an impact based warning

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New Zealand; International
CDC via Unsplash
CDC via Unsplash

When a disaster looms, impact based warnings can be more useful for the public than outright likelihoods. It's one thing to hear "it might rain", but another to hear "we're expecting treefalls and slips in your neighborhood". To issue these warnings, many agencies must work together to ensure that their data is cohesive and applicable to many locations. This New Zealand paper - part of a broader project - outlines how we can develop effective partnerships and work together to prepare for the next big thing.

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Dr Sara Harrison, study author; and Natural Hazards and Risk Management Scientist at GNS Science

Impact-based warnings are a type of warning that are intended to communicate what the hazard will do in addition to what it will be, to make the warnings more meaningful to the people receiving and acting on them. 

We continue to learn from overseas examples and cases to improve our own systems. For example, a recent tragedy occurred on 22 May 2021 in Baiyin, Gansu Province, China where 21 ultramarathon race runners died due to exposure to high winds combined with low temperatures and precipitation. The forecasts for this weather phenomenon were timely and accurate, yet the race continued. Researchers argued that while this weather phenomenon would not normally have been a high-impact weather event, the vulnerability of runners in shorts and vests to the low temperatures resulted in unfortunate deaths, making this a high-impact event. 

In many cases in Aotearoa New Zealand, the MetService, councils, and Civil Defence and Emergency Management Groups are in contact to discuss warnings and thresholds, to exchange information on the forecast and current conditions on the ground (e.g., soil saturation, community events that might increase people’s exposure), to inform decisions about what the warning level should be (e.g., should it be red or orange?). But this information and knowledge exchange is dependent on the relationships between the organisations and staff, and the organisations’ procedures and processes both in terms of response planning and information sharing. 

The Canterbury earthquakes from 2010 to 2011 revealed gaps in interoperability for data sharing during and after the disaster, due to several factors such as incompatible data sharing systems and resource challenges. This event highlighted the need for standards-based interoperability for improved information and data management. 

Since then and in response to these gaps, the NZ Civil Defence and Emergency Management sector has been actively working towards a Common Operating Picture (COP) in which all agencies and stakeholders involved in an event can access and view the same information. This involves developing standards and capabilities for enabling access to and sharing of datasets.

The response to Cyclone Gabrielle saw an acceleration of the testing and use of GIS-based solutions, which resulted in the use of several online platforms and tools to support the coordination of the various response agencies and datasets involved, and facilitated data sharing between these agencies. 

Additionally, the establishment of the Christchurch Justice & Emergency Service Precinct where all justice and emergency services are located together in central Christchurch for better integration and coordination of these services is expected to improve the efficiency of the flow of information across agencies in an emergency response. 

Last updated:  12 Apr 2024 10:19am
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Declared conflicts of interest Dr Harrison is the author of this research.

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Research , Web page Open access
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conference:
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Research:Paper
Organisation/s: GNS Science, Massey University
Funder: This research was funded by New Zealand's Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment through the Global Change through Time programme (Strategic Science Investment Fund, contract C05X1702) and Resilience to Nature's Challenges Kia manawaroa – Ngā Ākina Te Ao Tūroa
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