“As fuel prices surge and concerns rise about supply disruptions, it’s important the public understands that panic buying is not justified at this stage. Stockpiling - whether by households or farmers - risks creating the very shortages we are worried about. Petrol supplies remain relatively secure, and companies such as ExxonMobil Australia are already sourcing additional product from the United States, demonstrating that alternative supply pathways exist.

Where Australia is genuinely exposed is diesel. Our diesel supply depends heavily on refineries in South Korea, Japan and Singapore, and any interruption in their crude oil intake will flow through globally. The US imports significant diesel from Europe, meaning there are few alternative sources. In the short term, limiting the filling of jerry cans at petrol stations - with government support if needed - could help stabilise demand.

If this disruption persists, Australians will need to reduce non-essential driving and use public transport more frequently. The biggest vulnerabilities are sectors like mining, health, agriculture, and transport, all of which rely on diesel. High prices will also put pressure on the trucking sector and, ultimately, supermarket costs. Longer term, Australia must develop a strategic fuel reserve with Indo-Pacific partners, as our current storage is designed only for normal consumption, not crises.”

“In supply chain science, we often refer to the bullwhip effect to describe how disruptions or sudden changes in demand become amplified as they move through supply chains. The term comes from the motion of a whip: a small movement at the handle can create a much larger crack at the tip. In supply chains, relatively small disruptions at the upstream end (such as a shock to global oil supply) can translate into much larger economic effects by the time they reach consumers.

What we are seeing now is primarily an upstream supply disruption. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the reduction in regional energy production tighten global oil supply, which can rapidly push prices higher across transport, logistics and production systems.

Panic buying at the consumer level only worsens this situation. When consumers suddenly increase purchases, retailers interpret that behaviour as a surge in demand and place larger orders upstream. Those signals then travel through distributors and refiners, amplifying the disruption that already exists on the supply side. In effect, a second bullwhip begins at the supply end and can then be reinforced from the demand side if panic buying occurs.

From a human perspective, panic buying is understandable. When people see uncertainty about supply or rapidly rising prices, the instinct to secure fuel while it is available is a very natural reaction. However, from a supply chain and logistics perspective, it is extremely counterproductive.”

"Higher oil prices act as a tax on consumers, adding to already existing cost-of-living concerns, and will negatively affect economic growth prospects.

A prolonged period of elevated oil prices will flow through to the prices of other goods, including food. The combination of these two forces poses a challenge for policymakers as it could see the return of stagflation, as occurred during the 1970s."

"Rising petrol prices are directly linked to the Middle East conflict that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, thus removing a considerable share of world crude oil exports from the markets. That said, Australia's crude oil imports mainly come from East, Southeast, and South Asia.

Despite some shortages, the bigger issue at the moment - and in the foreseeable future - is affordability rather than availability.

If the disruption lingers, heightened fuel prices can have a knock-on effect on agricultural production, as well as food processing and distribution - energy costs that are directly or indirectly linked to crude oil prices are a substantial component of the price we pay for a loaf of bread or a box of cereal.

There is nothing, really, that we could have done or should have done differently to have avoided finding ourselves in this situation. We are part of the global economy - which is a good thing - but it comes at the cost of being exposed to global shocks."

“Every major geopolitical shock in an oil-producing region quickly becomes an energy and transport crisis.  

When transport systems are built around oil, conflict thousands of kilometres away can translate into higher costs, supply disruptions and economic instability at home. 

As long as transport and freight rely heavily on oil, countries remain exposed to geopolitical risk. 

Reducing oil use through electrification, public transport investment and alternative fuels is critical for long-term resilience. 

Moving away from oil is as much about stability and security as it is about climate action.”

"Fuel shocks accelerate the transition to electric vehicles, which reduces smog and greenhouse emissions, reduces costs, and insulates Australia from disruptions to oil imports."

Q:What parts of our energy system are most vulnerable to global fuel disruptions?
"Transportation: oil dependence is the problem; we have sufficient gas."

Q:How prepared is Australia for a prolonged disruption in global fuel supplies?
"Unprepared; 30 days’ petrol/diesel storage is inadequate." 

Q:How will people need to change their fuel use if this disruption continues long term?
"Those who can afford it should purchase an electric vehicle ASAP."

Q:What energy system changes could make Australia more resilient to shocks?
"Government should improve urban public transport and infrastructure for cycling and walking in cities, and install more charging stations for electric vehicles."