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The Arctic may be sea-ice-free in summer by the 2030s
The Arctic could be sea-ice-free during the month of September as early as the 2030s even under a low emissions scenario — about one decade earlier than previously projected — suggests a modelling study published in Nature Communications. These updated findings highlight the significant impact of human activities on the Arctic and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally sea-ice-free Arctic in the near future.
Arctic sea ice has been declining rapidly throughout all seasons during recent decades with an increased decline experienced since the year 2000. A sea-ice-free Arctic would affect human societies and natural ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic, such as by changing marine activity, further accelerating Arctic warming, and altering carbon cycling. However, uncertainty remains about the contribution of human activities to sea ice decline and whether the Arctic will become sea-ice-free under low emissions scenarios (SSP1-2.6).
To analyze the human contribution to Arctic sea ice decline and project its future pathway, Seung-Ki Min and colleagues used observational data from between 1979–2019 to constrain climate model simulations. The findings suggest that the human impact on declining sea ice in the Arctic can be seen throughout the year and can be largely attributed to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The contributions of aerosols and natural factors (such as solar and volcanic activity) were found to be much lower. Furthermore, the authors project that the Arctic may be sea-ice-free in September by 2030–2050 under all emission scenarios. This contrasts with previous assessments discussed in the sixth assessment report of the IPCC that did not project a future sea-ice-free Arctic in summer under low emissions.
Springer Nature is committed to boosting the visibility of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and relevant information and evidence published in our journals and books. The research described in this press release pertains to SDG 13 (Climate Action). More information can be found here.
