The 2020 Basin Plan Evaluation led by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) promises much but ignores an elephant in each of two corners of the emergency room.  On the plus side, it includes several findings with which none would disagree. One finding is: “Water enables First Nations to continue customary and spiritual traditions”. Much has been promised to First Nations in terms of water, but they are still waiting. And, in the NSW part of the Basin, First Nations own just 0.2% of the surface water entitlements, a proportion that has declined by about one fifth since 2009.

Another finding is: “There is evidence to suggest that much of the past funding to support communities to adapt to water reform could have been better targeted”. Good to know the MDBA has finally recognised what has been well documented in academic literature for at least a decade, and also in parliamentary and senate inquires, as well as the South Australia Murray-Darling Basin Royal Commission. Sadly, the late recognition will not stop billions of dollars committed to Basin water infrastructure – spending that will not help communities in desperate need of water security, such as Wilcannia, on the lower Darling.

We should expect much more from the Basin Plan Evaluation and we should expect more from the Basin Plan that has, so far, failed to deliver on key objects of the Water Act, as was promised. It’s time to call out the elephants. We must confront the truth, and why the Basin Plan is failing. Two key reasons include: (1) overextractions, especially in the Northern Basin (and don’t forget the MDBA, in 2016, argued for an increase in extractions in the Northern Basin by 70 billion litres per year that was approved in 2018), and (2), a failure to account for climate change in the Basin Plan Sustainable Diversion Limits (SDLs). Without calling it out, we will not get the changes that are desperately needed. Is that too much to ask for 8 years after the Basin Plan began? 

The challenge of the MDB plan is huge, this is one of the largest and most complex river systems in the world. This evaluation of the 2012 plan is important, in terms of openness and communication, and it shows that some progress has been made.

Clearly, the continuing impacts of climate change threaten to make a mess of all well-made plans, and the MDB plan is no exception. This directly links to the need for increased investment in science and monitoring and making information more accessible to Basin stakeholders. This also directly links to the need to create better social and economic outcomes, prioritising outcomes for First Nation’s people. 

Given climate change and the difficulty in monitoring impacts and outcomes, water sharing will remain a negotiated process for now and into the future. We all need to be willing to negotiate and remember those stakeholders who don’t have a voice, or don’t have a strong voice.

A concern is the call for increased “infrastructure” and “river operating rules”. If the system is to keep its environmental values, we need to have less human interference and not more.

The report is a welcome review of the progress of the Basin Plan that reveals stark outcomes after 8 years - while some positive outcomes have been measured, many critical environmental indicators remain poor.

The evidence suggests that we need to redouble our efforts to ensure the expected water is in the river, particularly in light of our recent assessment that showed observed river flows were 20 per cent less than expected under the basin plan.

We welcome the report's strong emphasis on the need to address climate change, and acknowledgement that the Basin Plan won’t be enough. Much of the heavy lifting still remains to be done - on water recovery, water resource planning, relaxing constraints and floodplain harvesting - and we need a quantum shift in our efforts if we are to restore a healthy Basin in a changing climate.