Media release

From: The University of Sydney

“We’re experiencing a third La Niña in a row, so the forecast is for another wet summer over eastern Australia. We expect this to persist until about February.“

“While three-year La Niña events have happened before, we have never had a four-year event, so it is very unlikely, but not impossible, that it will continue for another year.”

“We can’t be certain yet whether climate change is playing a role in the excessive rainfall over eastern Australia; that will take a few months of scientific study. However, we do know that the Australian region has warmed by over 1.4 degrees due to climate change, and in a warmer atmosphere, storms produce more rainfall.”

"La Niña events arise when the eastern-central equatorial Pacific is colder than usual. These can turn into longer La Niña events when the ocean's currents and atmosphere's winds reinforce each other, which means a La Niña state can perpetuate for years at a time.”

“Historically, three-year La Niña events have resulted in rainier-than-usual conditions over eastern Australia, while simultaneously producing severe drought conditions over parts of the Americas.”

Dr Ramesh will deliver the Roderick Lecture hosted by the School of Civil Engineering on 28 October, discussing rainfall events in the face of climate change. Register here.