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Expert Reaction
These comments have been collated by the Science Media Centre to provide a variety of expert perspectives on this issue. Feel free to use these quotes in your stories. Views expressed are the personal opinions of the experts named. They do not represent the views of the SMC or any other organisation unless specifically stated.
Dr Steven Phipps is Director of Ikigai Research, an independent, non-profit research partnership.
During the past month, the Earth’s climate has been breaking previous temperature records. This Monday, 3 July 2023, was the world’s hottest day since records began. We are already breaching the Paris Agreement limit of keeping the Earth’s temperature to no more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
The Earth’s temperature tends to be hotter during El Niño events. During the last El Niño event, in 2015 and 2016, previous temperature records were broken. If an El Niño event is declared, then it would be starting from a point where the Earth is already hotter than we have ever known. We can expect new temperature records to be set during the months ahead.
The Earth is entering increasingly dangerous and uncharted territory. The need to make deep and rapid cuts in our carbon emissions is now stronger than it has ever been.
Ruby Lieber is a PhD Candidate at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes at the University of Melbourne
El Niño means that there is warmer than average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and weaker than average easterly trade winds. Because the ocean surface is warmer, more heat is released and the atmosphere warms. During El Niño it is more likely that we will experience warmer average global temperatures. Every El Niño is different and so resulting weather and climate impacts are not certain. In Australia, we would generally expect hotter and drier weather. El Niño increases the risk of drought and bushfires in Australia. Climate models suggest that El Niño impacts will become more intense under climate change.
Dr Abe Gibson is a Research Fellow in Sustainable Grazing Systems at Southern Cross University
An imminent spring and summer of El Niño will no doubt worry some about the prospect of drought. While El Niño is associated with drought, its return does not guarantee a return to the conditions experienced in 2019. Some El Niño years can be wetter than average or bring average conditions such as 1976.
For most of eastern Australia, El Niño is not the sole driver of rainfall variability and therefore drought. Across this winter period, rainfall will also be influenced by the Subtropical Ridge, Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode. Currently, the Indian Ocean Dipole is projected to be in its dry phase while the Southern Annular Mode is negative. Given the slow nature of drought onset, these other influences will all play roles in priming us for, or protecting us from, drought during the transition from winter to spring.
