"As a fuel and energy security specialist, I’m watching today's meeting between Australia’s PM Anthony Albanese and Singapore’s PM Lawrence Wong with particular interest—especially any joint statement on energy security, or more precisely, fuel security.

Singapore is one of the world’s most critical hubs for crude oil refining and fuel oil trading, underpinning shipping, aviation, power and industry across the region. Some fuel oil is further refined into diesel. Singapore has built this capability pragmatically—without energy policy being derailed by ideological lobbying.

Australia is already a supplier of LNG to Singapore, alongside Qatar and the United States, with Mozambique and Equatorial Guinea providing occasional cargoes. In September 2025, Qatar supplied over 90% of Singapore’s LNG. Today, with Qatari LNG infrastructure damage removing around 20% of supply for at least five years, the regional gas balance has changed materially.

This raises a hard question:
Does Australia genuinely have spare LNG capacity to support Singapore without compromising existing obligations to North Asia and other Southeast Asian markets?

Which leads to the core issue:
Will Australia finally approve long‑delayed domestic gas projects and accept a basic reality—modern economies continue to function because Australian gas exists?
If we don’t have capacity, it’s difficult to see how any LNG‑linked understanding around petrol and diesel security can be sustained.

For context, I’ve included LNG trade data between Singapore and Australia, along with vessel movements for crude oil and fuel oil into Singapore. Anyone managing the PM’s LinkedIn page is welcome to share the data, with attribution to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and Dr Lurion De Mello.

There is some near‑term relief with expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening—but relief should not be mistaken for strategy.

Looking ahead:
Will Singapore invest in a joint crude oil strategic reserve in Australia?
Will other ASEAN nations co‑invest?
Will Singapore share its refining and logistics expertise to modernise Australia’s infrastructure?
Will new refineries be built, particularly in Western Australia, using Malaysian or Bruneian crude?

Fuel security is not abstract. It is industrial, logistical and geopolitical. Choices made now will determine whether Australia remains a reliable energy partner—or a nation rich in resources but short on capacity.
I wish both Prime Ministers a productive meeting."

"Australia’s biggest fuel risk isn’t petrol prices — it’s diesel. Diesel powers freight, agriculture, mining, emergency services and defence logistics. Australia typically holds only about a month of diesel supply, and that creates strategic vulnerability during global disruptions.

Diesel isn’t a consumer fuel — it’s economic infrastructure. If diesel tightens, the impact shows up in food prices and freight, not just fuel bills. Australia’s diesel buffer relies on optimism about global shipping and insurance.

You can’t buy diesel in a crisis if you don’t have somewhere to store it. Storage is the fastest fuel-security fix available to government. From a defence perspective, running lean diesel inventories is an avoidable strategic risk. Diesel rarely makes headlines until it’s already too late to respond.

What remains uncertain is how quickly shipping insurance and freight availability tighten under prolonged conflict. What is clear is that storage capacity determines whether those risks are manageable or economy-wide."

"The next 48 hours remain critical with the Iran war. Here is a quick summary of the latest refined‑fuel flows into Australia based on vessel movements and departure signals:

🔹 Diesel: Plenty on the Water

Two large ULSD cargoes from India have been confirmed and are en route.

Multiple diesel shipments (particularly trucking diesel) from Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea show continued strength in supply. One U.S. cleaner diesel cargo is currently tracking for arrival on 14 April — a timely reminder of the month‑long voyage required for trans‑Pacific barrels. The U.S. usually imports diesel so this is a little surprise. Will we see some US gasoline instead arriving on our shores by the end of April/May?

🔹 Gasoline: Malaysia & Singapore Doing the Heavy Lifting

Several gasoline shipments covering 91/95/98 RON and unspecified grades are already in transit. Malaysia and Singapore remain Australia’s most consistent upstream sources for petrol and Clean Petroleum Products (CPP).

🔹 Jet Fuel: Strong Lift from South Korea & China

Multiple jet fuel/kerosene cargoes from South Korea and China are scheduled for early‑to‑mid April arrival.

This should keep Australia’s aviation sector well‑supported despite tight Asia‑Pacific refining margins. Supply from Japan could be of concern based on data.

🔹 Beyond 14 April?

As of now, no visible departures beyond 14 April, but:

👉 No need to panic. Exporters typically publish departure data only 5–7 days before sailing.

Expect to see more late‑March and early‑April departures coming into the picture soon.

Prices are likely to be alleviated. Shipping Costs and tanker availability could lead to supply issues. Not out of the woods by any means.

Petrol prices are flattening a bit. Average diesel price creeping towards $3 in the metro area.

🔹 Summary

Australia’s short‑term fuel outlook remains solid, with diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel all supported by strong regional inflows. I am monitoring it all as Middle East disruptions evolve."

Is panic buying justified?

"Many people are experiencing a sense of déjà vu (a feeling of having already experienced the present situation) as panic buying re-emerges amid concerns about disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Panic buying can be understood in a psychological manner, as perceived threats and expectations of scarcity impact social norms and people’s behaviours. However, this is not justified from a supply chain system perspective because it worsens local shortages faster than the underlying supply disruption itself. While different factors, such as public trust, media, and government policies, can either intensify or mediate the effect of the disruption, the recurrence of these behaviours serves as a strong reminder that resilient and sustainable supply chains are essential to stabilise markets and maintain public confidence during periods of uncertainty."

Is fuel rationing likely?

"Australia’s fuel rationing becomes a possibility. While supply for major urban areas are likely to be maintained due to the priority given to oil companies' long-term contracts, local shortages have forced the release of nearly 20% of reserves (762 million litres) to support independent retailers in regional areas. If the Hormuz blockade exceeds 30 days, the Liquid Fuel Emergency Act 1984 will likely be triggered to impose formal transaction limits."

How prepared is Australia for a prolonged disruption in global fuel supplies?

"Australia’s preparation for prolonged disruption in global fuel supplies faces vulnerabilities. Australia's refining capacity has dwindled to just two refineries at the start of 2026 (i.e., Ampol Lytton Refinery - Brisbane and Viva Energy Geelong Refinery - Victoria), leaving the country able to meet less than 20% of national demand. Under current consumption cover metrics, current stocks are around 29-36 days (counting tankers at sea), and this fails with the International Energy Agency's 90-day mandate."

What impacts will high fuel costs have on Australia?

"High fuel costs may compromise both food security and the resilience of domestic logistics infrastructure. This pressure would affect the inflation and may compel the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement interest rate hikes even as household incomes shrink. In parallel, surging diesel prices threaten a 50% spike in food costs and the potential collapse of just-in-time logistics networks."

How will people need to change their fuel use if this disruption continues long-term?

"In the short term, both individuals and businesses may be required to prioritise fuel for essential and day-to-day activities. In other words, this includes reducing non-essential car trips, increasing the use of public transport, e-mobility, and car-pooling, and expanding remote working. These can help conserve fuel for critical sectors such as freight, agriculture, and emergency services. If the crisis escalates or persists into the long term, governments and businesses should pivot toward structural substitution to reduce dependence on conventional fuels. Key strategies include the comprehensive electrification of the economy (e.g., EVs and e-micromobility), strengthening strategic refining capacity, and enhancing freight efficiency. Together, these measures can enhance the resilience and sustainability of Australia’s energy and transport infrastructure."

Is panic buying justified?

"Panic buying might be justified for the individual, but it is harmful to society. Panic buying is a classic example of a collective action problem and a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this case, it is prudent for the individual to fill up their tank today if they are concerned about a coming shortage or price rise. But if everyone does the same, it overwhelms the system and creates the shortage that was feared. We saw this with toilet paper during the early days of the COVID pandemic.

It is also the same phenomenon behind bank runs, and the solution is the same. People need reassurance that an adequate supply will be there when they need it. Statements from government ministers are important, but not enough. This is why Australia's emergency fuel reserves are important and must be managed prudently. Just as deposit insurance has succeeded in largely relegating bank runs to the history books — as Douglas Diamond & Philip Dybvig explained in their Nobel Prize winning research — if drivers believe that the government will step in with emergency supplies in a crisis, the mere presence of the reserve can short-circuit the panic before it ever starts."

Is fuel rationing likely?

"Fuel rationing will not be necessary as long as the government does not interfere with prices. The long queues and number plate rationing Australians saw during the 1970's oil crisis were the result of a major supply disruption crashing into the price controls of the time. While it may not be popular, the least painful solution to the global reduction in oil shipments is to let fuel prices rise. This is the market at work. Higher prices mean that those who can will cut back on fuel consumption or use alternatives, and it ensures that those who need the fuel the most can still get it.

Of course, this means real pain for drivers, shippers, airline passengers, and others. If the government wants to do something to ease the pain, the Energy Bill Relief Fund, which partly offsets consumers' higher energy bills without reducing the prices they pay, or, equivalently, the reward they get for reducing their usage. The key is for the government to avoid the temptation to keep prices from rising either through subsidies, which spend taxpayer dollars to make the problem worse by encouraging demand,  or price controls, which will bring back the queues and rationing from the 1970's."

What energy system changes could make Australia more resilient to shocks?

"The most obvious long-term solution is something Australia is doing, just not as fast as some others, like China or Norway, and that is to accelerate the transition from petroleum-based energy sources to alternatives, especially electric vehicles. The move toward renewable sources of electricity, such as solar and wind, which do not depend on global energy markets, is the most important part of this transition. But even powering electric vehicles with energy generated from fossil fuels that are abundant domestically, like coal and natural gas, also increases Australia's resilience.

"Global tensions affecting key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz can increase uncertainty in fuel markets and may place upward pressure on petrol prices. However, short-term panic buying is generally not justified and can contribute to temporary supply stress. Australia operates within global fuel supply chains and maintains commercial inventories and diversified import sources, which provide some resilience to short-term disruptions.

If disruptions persist, the most likely impacts will be higher price volatility and increased petrol costs rather than immediate widespread shortages.   From a consumer perspective, modest behavioural adjustments such as more efficient travel planning, use of public transport, and using a bike where possible can help mitigate demand and cost pressures.

Over the longer term, geopolitical conflicts like this highlight the importance of strengthening energy system resilience through improved supply chain planning, strategic reserves, and gradual diversification towards electrification and alternative energy sources.

I would like to mention that history shows that similar geopolitical disruptions - such as the Gulf War in the early 1990s, conflicts in the Middle East in the 2000s, and more recent attacks on oil infrastructure - typically led to sharp but temporary increases in fuel prices rather than prolonged physical shortages in developed economies.

Global supply chains tend to adjust over time through alternative sourcing, strategic reserves, and demand responses. My final advice to people is: Panic buying is not going to save anyone, but it will only add to the problem. So, stay calm and make some behaviour changes if you can."

"Rising petrol prices and headlines about global tensions can easily trigger concern, but what we are seeing right now is primarily a market response to expectations rather than evidence of an immediate physical fuel shortage.

Fuel markets are global commodity markets. Prices respond quickly to geopolitical risk because traders adjust expectations about future supply, and those price signals move through wholesale markets and eventually appear at service stations. When prices begin rising, both households and businesses often bring forward purchases they were going to make anyway.

Behavioural research shows that people can interpret visible buying behaviour as evidence of scarcity, a pattern linked to cognitive biases such as availability bias. In reality, much of the purchasing we see during events like this is price-driven rather than shortage-driven.

Australia’s fuel system also operates with relatively lean inventories because supply chains are designed to be efficient under normal conditions. The longer-term lesson from these episodes is not that the system is failing, but that resilience matters. Expanding fuel storage, diversifying energy sources and strengthening supply chains could help make Australia less sensitive to global disruptions in the future."

“Recent concerns about fuel prices and availability are understandable given ongoing uncertainty in global oil markets. At present, there is no clear sign of a nationwide fuel shortage in Australia, and much will depend on how geopolitical tensions evolve. If the conflict in the Middle East eases, global supply chains could stabilise, prices may fall, and conditions could return to more normal levels.

Australia remains exposed to global disruptions because it imports a large share of its refined petroleum. The country typically holds around 30 days of fuel stocks, well below the 90-day level recommended by the International Energy Agency. Although Australia draws on multiple suppliers, including Singapore, South Korea and Japan, these sources sit within the same Asia-Pacific supply chain, meaning major regional disruptions could still affect supply.

Fuel rationing is not considered likely at this stage, though governments retain emergency powers if severe shortages emerge. Some regional areas have seen tighter availability or delivery delays, making the issue feel more immediate outside major cities.

Policies that reduce fuel demand can help shield households. Measures such as Queensland’s 50-cent public transport fares encourage people to travel without relying on petrol. In the long term, greater storage capacity, more diverse energy sources and continued transport electrification would strengthen Australia’s resilience to global shocks.”

“As fuel prices surge and concerns rise about supply disruptions, it’s important the public understands that panic buying is not justified at this stage. Stockpiling - whether by households or farmers - risks creating the very shortages we are worried about. Petrol supplies remain relatively secure, and companies such as ExxonMobil Australia are already sourcing additional product from the United States, demonstrating that alternative supply pathways exist.

Where Australia is genuinely exposed is diesel. Our diesel supply depends heavily on refineries in South Korea, Japan and Singapore, and any interruption in their crude oil intake will flow through globally. The US imports significant diesel from Europe, meaning there are few alternative sources. In the short term, limiting the filling of jerry cans at petrol stations - with government support if needed - could help stabilise demand.

If this disruption persists, Australians will need to reduce non-essential driving and use public transport more frequently. The biggest vulnerabilities are sectors like mining, health, agriculture, and transport, all of which rely on diesel. High prices will also put pressure on the trucking sector and, ultimately, supermarket costs. Longer term, Australia must develop a strategic fuel reserve with Indo-Pacific partners, as our current storage is designed only for normal consumption, not crises.”

“In supply chain science, we often refer to the bullwhip effect to describe how disruptions or sudden changes in demand become amplified as they move through supply chains. The term comes from the motion of a whip: a small movement at the handle can create a much larger crack at the tip. In supply chains, relatively small disruptions at the upstream end (such as a shock to global oil supply) can translate into much larger economic effects by the time they reach consumers.

What we are seeing now is primarily an upstream supply disruption. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the reduction in regional energy production tighten global oil supply, which can rapidly push prices higher across transport, logistics and production systems.

Panic buying at the consumer level only worsens this situation. When consumers suddenly increase purchases, retailers interpret that behaviour as a surge in demand and place larger orders upstream. Those signals then travel through distributors and refiners, amplifying the disruption that already exists on the supply side. In effect, a second bullwhip begins at the supply end and can then be reinforced from the demand side if panic buying occurs.

From a human perspective, panic buying is understandable. When people see uncertainty about supply or rapidly rising prices, the instinct to secure fuel while it is available is a very natural reaction. However, from a supply chain and logistics perspective, it is extremely counterproductive.”

"Higher oil prices act as a tax on consumers, adding to already existing cost-of-living concerns, and will negatively affect economic growth prospects.

A prolonged period of elevated oil prices will flow through to the prices of other goods, including food. The combination of these two forces poses a challenge for policymakers as it could see the return of stagflation, as occurred during the 1970s."

"Rising petrol prices are directly linked to the Middle East conflict that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, thus removing a considerable share of world crude oil exports from the markets. That said, Australia's crude oil imports mainly come from East, Southeast, and South Asia.

Despite some shortages, the bigger issue at the moment - and in the foreseeable future - is affordability rather than availability.

If the disruption lingers, heightened fuel prices can have a knock-on effect on agricultural production, as well as food processing and distribution - energy costs that are directly or indirectly linked to crude oil prices are a substantial component of the price we pay for a loaf of bread or a box of cereal.

There is nothing, really, that we could have done or should have done differently to have avoided finding ourselves in this situation. We are part of the global economy - which is a good thing - but it comes at the cost of being exposed to global shocks."

"Rising petrol prices are understandably worrying people, but panic buying is rarely justified. Fuel supply chains are complex but generally robust, and sudden surges in demand caused by panic buying can create the very shortages people are worried about.

Fuel rationing is unlikely under current conditions, yet. Australia does have emergency powers under the Liquid Fuel Emergency Act that could allow governments to prioritise fuel supply or restrict sales in a severe disruption, but we are not currently close to that scenario.

The deeper issue highlighted by this situation is Australia’s heavy dependence on imported liquid fuels for road transport. When global oil markets are disrupted, those impacts quickly flow through to household fuel bills, freight costs and, ultimately, the prices of goods.

If disruptions persist, the main adjustment will likely come through behaviour and technology. People may drive less, carpool more, or shift some trips to public and active transport. Over the longer term, electrification of transport, more efficient vehicles and greater use of rail freight can reduce exposure to global oil shocks and improve energy security.

Every major geopolitical shock in an oil-producing region quickly becomes an energy and transport crisis.  

When transport systems are built around oil, conflict thousands of kilometres away can translate into higher costs, supply disruptions and economic instability at home. 

As long as transport and freight rely heavily on oil, countries remain exposed to geopolitical risk. 

Reducing oil use through electrification, public transport investment and alternative fuels is critical for long-term resilience. 

Moving away from oil is as much about stability and security as it is about climate action.”

"Fuel shocks accelerate the transition to electric vehicles, which reduces smog and greenhouse emissions, reduces costs, and insulates Australia from disruptions to oil imports."

Q:What parts of our energy system are most vulnerable to global fuel disruptions?
"Transportation: oil dependence is the problem; we have sufficient gas."

Q:How prepared is Australia for a prolonged disruption in global fuel supplies?
"Unprepared; 30 days’ petrol/diesel storage is inadequate." 

Q:How will people need to change their fuel use if this disruption continues long term?
"Those who can afford it should purchase an electric vehicle ASAP."

Q:What energy system changes could make Australia more resilient to shocks?
"Government should improve urban public transport and infrastructure for cycling and walking in cities, and install more charging stations for electric vehicles."