An extraordinarily misguided decision, supposedly based on science but undeniably political. This is disappointing, but the ultimate fate of this venture will be played out in the hard natural selection arena of the global market place where investors and bitterly disillusioned regional Queenslanders will be confronted by its failure on many levels. The real risk is that others may think that this somehow suggests there is a future down this road whereas it's a dead-end at a cliff edge. 

The Adani mine now represents one of the greatest moral hazards for Queensland and the risks will only increase as the mine begins production. The mine could still cost the people of Queensland, as the only path to its future viability will require long royalty holidays, infrastructure subsidies and uncertainty over its labour requirements. These risks associated with its viability will be underwritten by the state as the Carmichael mines’ production will continue to be uncompetitive as world thermal coal prices continue to fall below $90 USD/tonne. The most likely outcome will be that more mines will be open in the Galilee basin which also need significant subsidies with little to no impact on the state revenue.

It is going to be a bumpy ride for the next few decades for coal mines and other energy developments. The Adani mine approval process of the Queensland government is a harbinger of things to come. Increased attention to climate change is reinforcing concerns about local environmental impacts. This decision highlights the need to consider impacts on jobs and livelihoods of decisions not to approve such developments. These trade-offs are difficult to make, and that has led to careful scrutiny, wariness of political ramifications, and delays. Such delays increase uncertainty for businesses and their investors, as well as for residents in these areas. The Adani case suggests that we may need better ways to make such tough decisions. 

The final approval of the Adani mine was inevitable given the range of political, social and economical pressures on the Queensland government. The Qld government must have accepted that this comes however with a substantial environmental risk, as for example highlighted by Prof Werner’s comments on proposed water extraction and the concerns raised by CSIRO and GeoScience Australia.

The environmental focus now needs to shift to accurate monitoring of the cumulative impact on ecosystems, water and vegetation. When new data comes available from required monitoring, Adani should be asked to demonstrate conclusively (and taking into account uncertainty due to climate variability) that their initial predictions of the groundwater management plan are on track. This needs to be backed up with independent review and monitoring of sensitive ecosystems. Any significant deviation from the original plan should trigger remediation and possibly halting of all work. Surely the Qld government will have included such conditions in the management plan.

The Adani project in the Galilee Basin has received the final approvals required under Queensland law and may soon get underway.

The thermal coal produced by the mine will further accelerate the climate breakdown at a time when what is urgently needed is rapid and deep decarbonisation. If the Adani mine encourages other coal projects in the Galilee Basin then it could result in the release of up to 705 million tonnes of CO2 per annum (more than 1.3 times Australia’s current annual emissions).

The Energy Minister Angus Taylor has recently claimed that Australia should receive credit for the ‘low’ emissions LNG that it exports. Although this is not how carbon accounting works under international law (it is based on emissions within each country), Minister Taylor should nonetheless explain how a large increase in Australia’s coal exports is consistent with Australia’s stated commitment to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and its goals to keep the increase in global average temperatures below 1.5°C.

The Paris Agreement’s goals can only be achieved if there is a rapid transition from reliance on fossil fuels, and this will entail moratoria on new coal developments and the phasing out of coal-fired electricity production.

Adani will never happen. Government approval does not mean they have a marketable product.