Illness severity rather than vaccination rate was the main cause of COVID's impact on Māori and Pacific people

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2026-03-17 11:24

New Zealand

PHOTO: Martha Dominguez de Gouveia on Unsplash

Lower vaccination rates may not be the main reason why Māori and Pacific people were more likely to be hospitalised or die from Omicron variants of COVID, a NZ study finds. Researchers took a mathematical model used to predict COVID cases and outcomes, and added ethnicity-specific factors - including vaccination rates, COVID severity, and estimated contact with other people. Comparing the models to what really happened in 2022 and 2023 suggested that the most important factor was Māori and Pacific people with COVID infections being more likely to have severe cases. The researchers say their work is a step towards models that can better predict, and examine ways to reduce, the inequitable impacts of pandemics.

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Research Elsevier, Web page

Journal/
conference: Epidemics

Research:Paper

Organisation/s: Earth Sciences New Zealand, University of Canterbury, Te Pūnaha Matatini

Funder: The project “Improving models for pandemic preparedness and response: modelling differences in infectious disease dynamics and impact by ethnicity” (TN/P/24/UoC/MP) was funded by Te Niwha, the Infectious Diseases Research Platform – co-hosted by PHF Science and the University of Otago and provisioned by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, New Zealand. This research was supported by the Marsden Fund grant (24-UOC-020) managed by Royal Society Te Apārangi.

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