Trump’s tweets predicted levels of violence during Jan 6 riots

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2024-11-06 11:01

International

Tyler Merbler from USA, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

President Trump's tweets during the January 6 insurrection in the US capital predicted the levels of violence and the use of weapons by the rioters, according to US research. They also found that Trump’s tweets predicted changes in the volume and sentiments of #StopTheSteal tweets, which in turn explained changes in levels of violence and weapons use over the course of the riot. The researchers used data from thousands of live footage videos, Trump’s tweets and rally speech, other rally speeches and #StopTheSteal tweets to look for connections to the severity and duration of outbreaks of violence and weapons use during the riot. They say their findings point to the importance of a leader in escalating violent protest behaviour.

Media release

From: The Royal Society

Quantifying Links between Social Media and the Duration and Escalation of Violence During January 6th U.S. Capitol Insurrection

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

We examine the predictors of violence and weaponry during the January 6th U.S. Capitol insurrection. Using novel, high-resolution data, including more than 1,000 live footage videos, Trump’s tweets and rally speech, other rally speeches, and #StopTheSteal tweets, we apply Granger regression tests to identify the strong, weak, and reciprocal predictors of violence and weaponry. We find that Trump’s tweets predict bursts in rioters’ levels and duration of violence and weapons use. Trump’s tweets also predict changes in the volume and sentiments of #StopTheSteal tweets, which in turn explain additional variance in levels of violence and weapons use over the course of the riot.

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conference: Journal of the Royal Society Interface

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Organisation/s: Northwestern University, USA

Funder: This work has been supported by the Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University, and Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems, Northwestern University.

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