PHOTO: Brano/Unsplash
PHOTO: Brano/Unsplash

EXPERT REACTION: AstraZeneca vaccine linked to bleeding disorder, Pfizer not

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Peer-reviewed: This work was reviewed and scrutinised by relevant independent experts.

Observational study: A study in which the subject is observed to see if there is a relationship between two or more things (eg: the consumption of diet drinks and obesity). Observational studies cannot prove that one thing causes another, only that they are linked.

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New research has found a small increased risk of an autoimmune bleeding disorder known as immune thrombocytopenic purpura associated with the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. The New Zealand-led research team also found that getting the first shot of the Pfizer vaccine is not linked with any increased risk of clotting and other serious bleeding events. The study looked at how more than 2.5 million people in Scotland responded after getting their first dose of either the Pfizer or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines, which have been the most commonly used in the country. The authors say the small risk associated with the AstraZeneca jab is important, but is far smaller than the risk of serious illness or death caused by COVID-19.

Journal/conference: Nature Medicine

Link to research (DOI): 10.1038/s41591-021-01408-4

Organisation/s: Victoria University of Wellington

Funder: EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council (MC_PC_19075) with the support of BREATHE: the Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health (MC_PC_19004), which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Additional support has been provided through Public Health Scotland and the Community Health and Social Care Directorate of the Scottish Government. R.H. acknowledges support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Primary Care Research, the NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care Oxford and the NIHR Oxford BREATHE Centre. Competing interests: A.S. is a member of the Scottish Government Chief Medical Officer’s COVID-19 Advisory Group and the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Risk Stratification Subgroup and AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 Thrombocytopenia Task Force; all roles are remunerated to A.S. or his institution. C.R.S. declares funding from the Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, the Chief Scientist Office and the New Zealand Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment and Health Research Council during the conduct of this study. S.V.K. is co-chair of the Scottish Government’s Expert Reference Group on COVID-19 and Ethnicity, is a member of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies subgroup on ethnicity and acknowledges funding from an NHS Research Scotland Senior Clinical Fellowship, the Medical Research Council and the Chief Scientist Office. C.R. is a member of the Scottish Government Chief Medical Officer’s COVID-19 Advisory Group, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling and the Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency’s Vaccine Benefit and Risk Working Group. H.R.S. is an advisor to the Scottish Parliament’s COVID-19 Committee. All other authors report no financial conflicts of interest.

Media release

From: Victoria University of Wellington

A study whose lead author is a Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington epidemiologist has found the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine used in New Zealand is not associated with a condition that affects the blood known as idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) and other clotting and bleeding events.

ITP is characterised by low counts of platelets, the blood cells that help prevent blood loss when vessels are damaged. A low number of them can result in no symptoms or can lead to an increased risk of bleeding or in some cases clotting.

Professor Colin Simpson, associate dean—research and innovation in the University’s Te Wāhanga Tātai Hauora—Wellington Faculty of Health, was part of the study of 5.4 million people in Scotland, of whom 2.5m had received their first vaccine dose, with colleagues at the University of Edinburgh, where he was reader and director of innovation at the Usher Institute in the College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine before joining Te Herenga Waka in 2017

The study is the first analysis of ITP, bleeding and clotting events for an entire country following vaccination.

Its findings are good news for New Zealand’s ongoing vaccine rollout, says Professor Simpson.

“It is encouraging we did not identify any increased risk of ITP, bleeding and clotting events in those receiving the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine,” he says.

ITP may be associated with the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in rare cases, the study suggests.

The very small increased risk of the condition is estimated to be 11 per million doses. The study team says the increased risk of developing ITP after receiving the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine remains very substantially smaller than that of developing it because of COVID-19. It says recipients of the vaccine should be made aware of the slight increased risk but it should not deter the rollout of the vaccine.

The study did not include vaccines other than Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca.

Professor Simpson says the team will continue to monitor the safety of the two vaccines as they are rolled out in Scotland.

“We are now planning to update our analysis as the vaccine programme is being extended to younger, healthier individuals and as new vaccines are becoming available,” he says.

“This and other important international work undertaken by researchers at Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington is providing the best scientific evidence for policymakers in Aotearoa and other countries.”

The researchers were unable to establish a definitive link between other forms of clotting— including the rare one called cerebral venous sinus thrombosis or CVST—due to the very low number of cases in vaccinated people included in the study.

Those at most risk from ITP tended to be older—a median age of 69 years—and had at least one underlying chronic health condition, such as coronary heart disease, diabetes or chronic kidney disease.

The team, led by the University of Edinburgh, analysed a dataset as part of the EAVE II project, which uses anonymised linked patient data to track the pandemic and the vaccine rollout in Scotland in real time.

It investigated data up to 14 April 2021 for people in Scotland who had received the first dose of either vaccine. By this date, more than 1.7 million had an Oxford-AstraZeneca jab and some 800,000 had a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

The team—working in collaboration with the Universities of Strathclyde, Aberdeen, Glasgow, Oxford, Swansea and St Andrew’s, Queen’s University, Belfast, and Public Health Scotland—also looked at health records dating back to September 2019 to investigate any previous ITP, clotting or bleeding events.

The data—including GP records on vaccination, hospital admissions, death registrations and laboratory test results—were then compared with those who were yet to be vaccinated to determine if any clotting events were outside what would have been expected pre-pandemic.

The data indicated there was a slight increase in ITP in the second week following vaccination for those who received the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine and possibly also increased risk of arterial clotting and bleeding events.

The 11 cases of ITP per million vaccine doses is similar to numbers seen for Hepatitis B, MMR and flu vaccines, which range from 10 to 30 cases of ITP per million doses.

The team found no adverse events in relation to ITP, clotting or bleeding in their analysis for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

The researchers say a two-week lag for hospital data may mean some data are missing, which possibly limits the study’s findings. Further, the study included relatively few young vaccinated people under 40, especially for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, as the Scottish vaccination programme followed the recommendations of the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, which prioritised vaccinations for older and vulnerable adults.

The results are published in the journal Nature Medicine. The study was funded by the Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and Health Data Research UK (HDR UK), and was supported by the Scottish Government.

Additional support was provided through the Scottish Government Director-General Health and Social Care, and the UKRI COVID-19 National Core Studies Data and Connectivity programme led by HDR UK.

Professor Aziz Sheikh, director of the University of Edinburgh’s Usher Institute and EAVE-II study lead, says: “This careful analysis of an entire country’s vaccination programme, which involved the study of over 2.5m first dose vaccines, has found a small increase in the risk of ITP, clotting and bleeding events following the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. This very small risk is important, but needs to be seen within the context of the very clear benefits of the vaccines and potentially higher risks of these outcomes in those who develop COVID-19.”

Professor Chris Robertson from Strathclyde University and Public Health Scotland, says: “This study shows the advantage of being able to link together large national data sets to provide near real time information of vaccine safety, using a number of analytical methods. An important next step is to replicate this work in other settings to ensure the findings are robust.”

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Expert Reaction

These comments have been collated by the Science Media Centre to provide a variety of expert perspectives on this issue. Feel free to use these quotes in your stories. Views expressed are the personal opinions of the experts named. They do not represent the views of the SMC or any other organisation unless specifically stated.

Professor Peter McIntyre, medical advisor, Immunisation Advisory Centre

This is a nice study using the same data source and with the same authors as an earlier paper comparing vaccine effectiveness for AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines in Scotland. Immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) is not so rare as central venous sinus thrombosis, but is also much less likely to cause fatal outcomes. Although I have to confess to being a paediatrician, and so not familiar with what ITP looks like in older adults, especially with co-morbidities and pre-existing platelet or clotting disorders, which would be substantially more common in the background than in children.

The authors acknowledge that they did not have access to hospital records - and one would expect that any severe incidence cases of ITP requiring therapy would have been in hospital. They also were not able to have cases reviewed by an expert panel and so relied on coded diagnoses and inferred therapy for ITP, which in general practice would have been follow-on rather than primary therapy. They also did a self-controlled case series analysis, which is a nice methodological approach which was pioneered for ITP post-MMR and DTP vaccination in children. It allows comparison of the risk of an event in post-vaccine periods compared with pre-vaccine in the same individual, which as the authors say can control for residual confounding which I suspect is more of an issue in this dataset, dominated by older adults who would have many other causes for thrombocytopaenia.

The lack of any association by either case control or Self Controlled Case Series method for Pfizer recipients is also reassuring with respect to study findings because the same biases should have been operating. Interesting that in a data set of the size they had available, they did not identify any of the thrombocytopaenia cases which have been reported in Europe and the UK with much larger populations, while these latter countries did not identify excess cases of ITP.

The takeaways from this study for a New Zealand audience are:

  • The Pfizer vaccine is coming up roses again.
  • Context is important: the risk of various severe outcomes, including death, increased in the elderly at-risk population to the extent that the risk/benefit calculation is still strongly in favour of using AstraZeneca.
  • Scotland has an almost identical population size to New Zealand, and of course New Zealand has many similarities in terms of data set availability to Scotland, except for the lack of good primary care data (hospital data except for use of prescription data) and timeliness of data availability. Therefore, the capacity for rapid analysis is not as good but as there is no COVID-19 in New Zealand, if such a study were repeated here, that would not be a confounding factor.
Last updated: 10 Jun 2021 9:02am
Declared conflicts of interest:
None declared.

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