Photo by Tobias Rademacher on Unsplash
Photo by Tobias Rademacher on Unsplash

NEWS BRIEFING: IPCC Synthesis report - Aussie authors speak

Embargoed until: Publicly released:
Peer-reviewed: This work was reviewed and scrutinised by relevant independent experts.

The IPCC synthesis report pulls together the findings of six reports released by IPCC during the cycle which began in 2015. The Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report is the most comprehensive summary of our current knowledge of climate change. It integrates the findings of the three IPCC Working Group reports on the science, impacts and mitigation of climate change, alongside the three special reports covering the land, oceans and ice, and the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees. This briefing brings together the three Australian members of the report's core writing team.

Organisation/s: IPCC, The Australian National University, The University of Melbourne

Funder: UN

Media release

From: Australian Science Media Centre

The IPCC synthesis report pulls together the findings of six reports released by IPCC during the cycle which began in 2015. The Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report is the most comprehensive summary of our current knowledge of climate change. It integrates the findings of the three IPCC Working Group reports on the science, impacts and mitigation of climate change, alongside the three special reports covering the land, oceans and ice, and the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees. This briefing brings together the three Australian members of the report's core writing team.

Speakers:

  • Professor Mark Howden, Director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions at The Australian National University, Vice-Chair of IPCC working group II and review editor for the IPCC Synthesis Report
  • Professor Malte Meinshausen, Professor In Climate Science at The University of Melbourne and member of the IPCC Synthesis Report core writing team
  • Professor Frank Jotzo, Head of Energy the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions at The Australian National University and member of the IPCC Synthesis Report core writing team

Attachments:

Note: Not all attachments are visible to the general public

  • Australian Science Media Centre
    Web page
    Briefing recording playback
  • World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
    Web page
    World Meteorological Organisation Statement

Expert Reaction

These comments have been collated by the Science Media Centre to provide a variety of expert perspectives on this issue. Feel free to use these quotes in your stories. Views expressed are the personal opinions of the experts named. They do not represent the views of the SMC or any other organisation unless specifically stated.

Professor Mark Howden is Director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions at The Australian National University, Vice-Chair of IPCC working group II and review editor for the IPCC Synthesis Report

The latest IPCC report triggers many alarm bells that we cannot afford to ignore. It makes it crystal clear that climate change has rapidly altered the atmosphere, oceans, land and ice-covered areas. This has generated more severe extreme weather events and widespread negative impacts on lives, livelihoods and natural systems. More change is likely. For example, in almost all emission scenarios global warming reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius in the first half of the 2030s.

The choices we take now will have consequences in coming decades and potentially for thousands of years.

There are also many options to adapt to climate change that bring substantial co-benefits including emission reduction.

However, the implementation of these adaptations is not keeping pace with the changes we are observing. This report tells us how we can do better.”

Additional quotes from our online news briefing: 

"So one of the core messages coming out of this synthesis report is, that it confirms that humans are unequivocally increasing our greenhouse gas emissions, which is leading to increased and record greenhouse gas concentrations in our atmosphere, which is increasing in the global temperature.

We're now 1.1 degrees above pre-industrial [temperatures], and that's driven widespread, rapid and very substantial changes right across the globe in things like sea level rise, in terms of climate extremes, in terms of food productivity, agricultural productivity, and that largely has actually been problematic.

So the impacts, on balance, tend to be negative rather than positive. And so that's actually generated widespread and problematic impacts to lives, to livelihoods, and to natural systems.

And it's very clear, and increasingly clear, that vulnerable people who've often contributed least to the greenhouse gas emissions are disproportionately affected by these climate change impacts.

As well as those differences across different geographies and different financial statuses, there's also intergenerational equities, which are highlighted in this report.

So for example, a child born now is likely on average to have or experienced three to four times as many extreme climate events in their lifetime as their grandparents did. So we're actually leaving a world behind us that is actually less safe than the world which we inherited, people of my generation.

Last updated: 20 Mar 2023 4:50pm
Declared conflicts of interest:
Mark is Vice-Chair of IPCC working group II and review editor for the IPCC Synthesis Report
Professor Frank Jotzo is Director of the Centre for Climate Economics & Policy at the Australian National University's Crawford School of Public Policy

If you want us to sort of very colloquially summarise the thing, and I borrow the words of a very senior colleague in the IPCC, and say that we are up the proverbial creek, but we do have a paddle. That's really the key message from the report.

So emissions are rising, still rising, but the pace has slowed off emissions growth. The report assesses that billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year are being avoided or not being emitted because of the direct effect of policies, and laws, and other measures to constrain emissions and reduce emissions.

So it's no longer hypothetical in terms of reducing emissions, it's actually happening, 18 countries can be identified as having reduced emissions substantially and consistently reducing emissions over time and the aggregate effect globally of emissions policies is a very significant one.

More importantly, looking forward, the report assesses that the technical opportunity to cut emissions the world over amounts to half, we can halve emissions globally between now and 2030, at incremental costs of less than 100 US dollars per tonne of carbon dioxide. Now 100 US per carbon per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent is about four times the magnitude of the current price in the Australian emissions offset market, and it's in the rough order of the EU emissions trading price right now. So it's not a prohibitively high price or anything like that.  And if policy effort was consistently applied, right across the world, in every sector, every country, then we'd see a halving of global emissions. 

The report provides an unequivocal statement that the economic benefits of limiting temperature rise to below two degrees outweigh the costs, the economic costs of doing so. And that is before considering all of the benefits that cannot be economically quantified. So it's a very strong statement supporting the ambition to keep temperature rise below two degrees.

Last updated: 18 Aug 2023 10:56am
Declared conflicts of interest:
Frank is a member of the IPCC Synthesis Report core writing team.
Professor Malte Meinshausen is a Professor in Climate Science at The University of Melbourne and member of the IPCC Synthesis Report core writing team

This report provides an indication of 60% greenhouse gas emission reductions below 2019 levels by 2035, and for CO2, it will be 65%. And just in comparison, the 2030 numbers are 43% for greenhouse gas, 48% for CO2, and we also specify for methane, roughly a 30% reduction by 2030.

This synthesis report confirmed again the picture that while we have these clear milestones, the current NDCs [nationally determined contributions] in their aggregate, in their sum, do not actually go to these levels yet, there is a substantial emissions gap, and 'substantial emissions gap' is the wording that this report chooses. And also there's an implementation gap. Even these targets are not yet underpinned fully with policies.

What is more emphasised than previously is that this decade is really the last decade, and until 2030, is the last time we know that we have a chance to keep global warming to one-and-a-half degree temperatures.

Last updated: 20 Mar 2023 4:49pm
Declared conflicts of interest:
Malte is a member of the IPCC Synthesis Report core writing team.
Peter Newman AO is the John Curtin Distinguished Professor of Sustainability at Curtin University

The IPCC Synthesis Report release is well-timed as Australia is considering the Safeguard Mechanism this week in Federal Parliament. The Synthesis Report is disappointing for me as the emphasis continues to be on what we are doing wrong globally (not enough action) instead of what we are doing right (action is underway).

This emphasis means that we don’t see the opportunities which are now very clear. The IPCC Press Release quotes “Accelerated climate action will only come about if there is a many-fold increase in finance. Insufficient and misaligned finance is holding back progress.”

The reality is that in recent years finance has created $88 trillion and this is changing everything. For example, two sources of finance for the WA Government pulled out of their interest in funding unless a greater commitment to net zero was made. This happened and now huge opportunities for net zero urban development, regional development and industrial /mining have appeared and are driving the next WA economy.

The Safeguard Mechanism debate must be passed to help in this transition for industry and at the same time the Federal Government needs to find other mechanisms (such as the new Federal EPA process) to prevent new fossil-fuel projects. Otherwise, they will be faced with having to help stranded assets as the markets for fossil fuels are dying very rapidly over the next ten years.

Last updated: 18 Aug 2023 10:55am
Declared conflicts of interest:
Peter was a coordinating lead author on chapter 10 (transport) of the IPCC Working Group 3 report on mitigation but has not participated in the Synthesis Report.
Jacqueline Peel is Director of Melbourne Climate Futures and Professor of Law at the University of Melbourne Law School

The IPCC Synthesis Report emphasises the need for urgent, transformational actions and policies to keep alive any prospect of staying within 1.5 degrees of warming. This is a critical context for countries like Australia which are presently in the midst of reforming climate and environmental laws to take forward emissions reductions.

As the IPCC has highlighted, if governments and big corporate polluters fail to take ambitious action, climate litigation before international and domestic courts is emerging as an alternative pathway. In a recent speech to the Human Rights Council, UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed this development to use legal challenges as a means for ensuring greater accountability of those contributing most to the climate crisis, including what he called 'climate wrecking corporations'.

Last updated: 18 Aug 2023 10:55am
Declared conflicts of interest:
Jacqueline was a Lead Author on the Working group 3 report but has not participated in the Synthesis Report.

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