EXPERT REACTION: Melanoma cases predicted to increase 50% by 2040, deaths by 68%

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International scientists, including Australians, have investigated the burden of cutaneous melanoma around the world in 2020, and say 325,000 new melanoma cases and 57,000 deaths occurred in 2020. Rates were highest in Australia and New Zealand, followed by Western Europe, North America and Northern Europe. Melanoma was rare in most African and Asian countries, the scientists say. The highest rates of death from melanoma were seen in New Zealand. Based on the rates in 2020, the authors estimate the burden from melanoma will increase to 510,000 new cases (a roughly 50 per cent increase) and to 96,000 deaths (a 68 per cent increase) by 2040.

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Expert Reaction

These comments have been collated by the Science Media Centre to provide a variety of expert perspectives on this issue. Feel free to use these quotes in your stories. Views expressed are the personal opinions of the experts named. They do not represent the views of the SMC or any other organisation unless specifically stated.

Dr Bronwen McNoe, Social and Behavioural Research Unit, University of Otago

Melanoma is a substantial public health burden in New Zealand with more than 350 deaths annually.

The cost of diagnosing and treating melanoma in New Zealand is estimated to be in excess of $51 million annually.

About three-quarters of melanoma results from DNA damage triggered by exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR), primarily from the Sun.

High rates of melanoma in New Zealand are primarily due to higher levels of exposure to UVR and a high proportion of our population having European ancestry and fair-coloured skin.

Strategies that focus on reducing the amount of harmful UVR New Zealanders are exposed to is the best way to reduce the melanoma burden.

Unfortunately New Zealand lags behind Australia in virtually every dimension of skin cancer prevention including Government investment. For example, funding for skin cancer prevention (2020/21) to the Te Hiringa Hauora Health Promotion Agency was just $500,000 (including salaries). In comparison:

  • The number of road fatalities in New Zealand is similar to the number of melanoma deaths. Waka Kotahi has just spent $15 million on one campaign.
  • The Commonwealth Government in Australia has just invested $10 million in a single two-year campaign focusing on skin cancer prevention.

Although we continue to encourage individual’s to slip, slop, slap and wrap, it is also important that environments in which we live, work and play provide protection from high levels of UVR. For example, installing shade in playgrounds can provide great protection for our young people while they enjoy the outdoors.

Last updated:  30 Mar 2022 3:26pm
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Dr Louise Reiche, vocationally registered dermatologist, member and immediate past president of the New Zealand Dermatological Society

Melanoma causes a significant cancer burden to New Zealanders and our health system. Both the incidence and mortality figures are higher in New Zealand than any other country (as described in this article), for multiple reasons including our large proportion of fair skin ethnicities, outdoor lifestyle, and high year-round UV exposure.

The gravity of this issue was thoroughly discussed at this year’s Melnet Summit, highlighting multiple areas of concern related to melanoma including:

  • Insufficient funding for New Zealand epidemiology studies
  • Insufficient infrastructure support and funding for education in sun prevention strategies in all levels of education (beyond pre-school and primary school) and general population
  • Inequities – although Māori and Pacific peoples have a lower incidence melanoma, their melanoma diagnosis is made late with associated poorer health outcomes including disproportionately higher mortality
  • Need for total ban of commercial sunbeds (not just for under 18 year olds)
  • Priority for routine permanent shade provision in public places e.g., schools, parks, and recreational facilities, in city planning, building consents, and so forth
  • Mandatory therapeutic product sunscreen standards compliance and testing
  • Equitable access to medical experts for high-risk patient screening and monitoring
  • Infrastructure and financial support to correct and build the health workforce
  • Infrastructure and funding support for research and provision of world-standard therapies and treatment for early, intermediate, and late-stage melanoma

Reformation of our health system is a wonderful opportunity to address these considerable holistic health measures for the long-term benefit of all New Zealanders to reduce the current and pending melanoma health burden.

Last updated:  30 Mar 2022 12:06pm
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Amanda Oakley, Adjunct Associate Professor, Department of Medicine, University of Auckland; and Dermatologist, Waikato District Health Board, comments

High rates of melanoma and having the highest mortality from melanoma in the world is not news to New Zealand melanoma experts. The MelNet Melanoma Summit a couple of weeks ago was sobering, with excellent talks from the experts. One of the authors of the JAMA Dermatology paper, Dr David Whiteman, was a keynote speaker.

Not only are our incident and mortality rates high (especially in males more than 50 years old), but we have a burgeoning ageing population of white New Zealanders (baby boomers) that baked in the sun during their youth or have worked outdoors with little protection from sunburn or daily relentless ultraviolet radiation — the cause of >90 per cent of melanomas in New Zealand. Our health services are under a great strain with far too few dermatologists, surgical specialists, and GPs to effectively manage our skin cancer epidemic.  

MelNet has recently published Quality Statements to guide patient care.

MelNet's priorities for action include an emphasis on training primary care doctors to examine the skin for melanoma (including dermoscopy). These doctors are signing up in droves to upskill.

On the bright side, some patients with advanced melanoma are surviving whereas they would have died a few years ago, thanks to new immunotherapy drugs. However, the options for treatment are fewer than in comparable countries overseas despite our dubious honour of having the highest mortality rates from melanoma in the world.

Last updated:  30 Mar 2022 10:14am
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Dr Geri McLeod, Christchurch Health and Development Study, University of Otago, Christchurch

The results of this study send a clear message to the New Zealand government and local territorial authorities that more investment is needed to reduce risk factors for the development of melanoma.

Previous research has shown that the New Zealand population is too optimistic about their ability to sun-protect and as a consequence are experiencing sunburn. This is known as the sunburn paradox. That is, individuals have a tendency to incorrectly believe that their chosen sun protection method will be adequate. For example, we often see media reports of people becoming badly sunburned after only using sunscreen as their form of sun protection. 

The easiest way to protect yourself from excess UV radiation is to restrict outdoor activity when UV radiation is at a peak, usually a few hours either side of midday. To properly protect the skin from excess UV radiation when outdoors, we need to use physical cover such as a shirt and hat, in addition to seeking shade where practical.

The use of sunscreen should only be an adjunct form of sun protection, rather than the main/only form of sun protection used. It is very important that those using sunscreen use it properly by applying enough, applying prior to going outdoors, apply a second coat of sunscreen to cover any thin spots and gaps missed in the first coat, and reapplying frequently when outdoors. 

Therefore, this study has shown that education campaigns such as the successful SunSmart programs launched in Australia need to be continued. Territorial authorities can help reduce over exposure to UV radiation and sunburn by scheduling public events so that they occur outside of peak UV and provide effective shade (trees or shade sails).

Last updated:  30 Mar 2022 10:12am
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Declared conflicts of interest Conflict of interest statement: "My salary is partially funded by the Cancer Society of New Zealand."

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Research JAMA, Web page The URL will go live after the embargo ends
Journal/
conference:
JAMA Dermatology
Research:Paper
Organisation/s: The University of Sydney, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, International Agency for Research on Cancer, France
Funder: Dr Cust is supported by a Career Development Fellowship (1147843) from the Australian NHMRC.
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