EXPERT REACTION: WMO's State of the Global Climate shows 2024 went over 1.5 degrees

I think I can speak on behalf of all climate scientists when I say that none of us are surprised by this report. Dismayed? Yes. Exasperated? Disappointed? Concerned? Worried? Yes to all these too. But we are not surprised because we have been warning of these changes for decades now.

We have had many wake-up calls, year after year, and immediately after the catastrophic impacts of perpetually unprecedented extreme events. Additionally, thanks to modern observing practises, we had many indications throughout the course of 2024 that it would be the hottest year in the instrumental record, beating the previous hottest year set all the way back in….2023.

Honestly, what IS it going to take for the wake-up call to be taken seriously? How much more do we need to scream and shout that climate change is happening, it’s because of us, and without any serious action, it’s only going to get worse? The longer this goes in, the harder it will be to make things better.

While exceeding 1.5C global warming for just 1 year does not mean we’ve permanently crossed this ominous threshold, it’s a sure sign that we’re well on the way, and likely earlier than we originally thought. This therefore puts the 2C threshold under serious threat sooner, particularly when combined with drastic changes in global politics we’re seeing played out in real time.

We have long reached a point where reaching net zero emissions is no longer enough. While it is absolutely imperative, a net-zero future MUST be coupled with appropriate and effective adaptation, as we are now locked into a significant amount of irreversible change and the associated ramifications of extreme events and their impacts.

We need to stop hitting snooze on our alarm, which is the now regularly occurring record-breaking global temperatures. It is now high time to leap to our feet and get to action, we sure as hell need to.

"WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2024 is a reminder that the global climate is warming, very, very fast. This warming brings myriad impacts on ecosystems and human societies, which the world must now contend with.

Overwhelmingly, our climate is warming because atmospheric carbon dioxide, a by-product of fossil fuel extraction and use, continues unabated. We now live in an atmosphere richer in CO2 than it has been for at least 800,000 years. Along with record concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide, atmospheric composition is turbo-charging warming and its impacts.

At Kennaook/Cape Grim Baseline Atmospheric Pollution Station (sometimes known for having the ‘cleanest air in the world’), we have been measuring the rise in CO2 since 1976. Again in 2024 the concentration of CO2 measured at Kennaook/Cape Grim broke records, consistent with the global datasets presented by WMO.

Until the world reduces greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, we will continue to drive atmospheric composition change, propelling further climate warming. Until we reach net zero, we will continue to witness greater and greater impacts on our planet and society.

The WMO Global State of the Climate Report is the world’s most trusted climate report card. It’s frightening to see our climate report looking so dire yet again.
 
However, I’m not sure what researchers can say to this latest update that we haven’t said a thousand times before. Yes, we have now crossed even more devastating and globally significant thresholds. Yes, these records are breaking because of human-induced climate change. No, there is no other way to explain it. Yes, we can avoid the worst impacts of climate change but we all have to act, and we have to act right now. Yes, we are scared too.
 
I’ve been providing comments like these for my entire career, and honestly, I’m not quite sure what to do next. Scream these findings from the tops of buildings? Write my comments in capitals? Saying all this while dancing on TikTok? I don’t know. But unless we see real climate leadership from governments and businesses, I will save this response and send it through again next year.

The latest State of the Global Climate report from WMO underscores the need for immediate and systemic action. Many governments and businesses have acknowledged climate risks but responses to date remain largely insufficient. The focus must now shift from warnings to enforcement and accountability. We need a rapid implementation of climate resilience policies.

Governments must act decisively by implementing carbon pricing that reflects the true cost of emissions, end fossil fuel subsidies and support the rapid transition to a low-carbon economy. Policy decisions need to prioritise stricter emissions regulations and climate-adapted infrastructure. Insurers are already increasing premiums and withdrawing from high-risk regions, which is signalling that climate risks are no longer hypothetical but economic realities.

Businesses must embed climate risk into governance and investment strategies. Companies that fail to act will face not only physical risks due to impacts on their assets and supply chains but also transition risks and reputational consequences as regulatory scrutiny and societal actions intensify. 

Incrementalism is no longer an option. Our society, businesses and policymakers must transition from risk acknowledgement to decisive action. The choice is clear – we need bold and systemic intervention or we will risk escalating climate and economic instability.

The WMO State of the Climate highlights how climate change is unfolding around us while humanity continues emitting greenhouse gases at a record rate. Not only was 2024 the hottest year on record for the planet but we also saw record warm oceans and record high sea levels. Humanity's fingerprint can also be seen in the loss of sea ice and glacier mass, in the acidification of the ocean, and in the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat events. Despite decades of warnings, human-caused climate change is continuing at a rapid pace and the impacts are worsening. Only rapid decarbonisation will limit future climate changes and support the next generations to have a tolerable planet.

This is a truly alarming report. It emphasises the urgency of coordinated global action to slow the release of greenhouse gases. With an election imminent, voters should be demanding strong action to accelerate the closing of coal-fired power stations and cease the irresponsible approval of new gas fields. In the light of this report, the Coalition proposal to increase our greenhouse gas emissions by building nuclear power stations is clearly indefensible. The greatest threat to our national security is now climate change, so whoever is elected should review expensive military proposals such as AUKUS to provide the resources for an accelerated transition to renewables with storage.

This year’s WMO report makes it clear: climate change is no longer a distant threat—it is a lived reality, displacing record numbers of people, straining food systems, and disrupting lives. In Australia and around the world, communities are facing growing pressures from heatwaves, floods, droughts, and cyclones. As a social scientist focused on community resilience, I see how these disruptions challenge not only our infrastructure, but the social connections and shared capacities that help people adapt. The good news is we know what works: strong social networks, local leadership, and programs that build flexibility, agency, and trust are powerful tools for navigating change. Investing in these ‘soft’ capacities—alongside early warning systems and climate services—can help communities not just cope, but thrive. With the right support and the right priorities, we can build a more resilient, more connected, and more hopeful future in the face of climate extremes.

Global surface air temperatures have already exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level as of 2024, highlighting the urgency of climate action. While atmospheric and surface ocean temperatures can respond relatively quickly to future emission reductions, the deep ocean exhibits a much slower adjustment timescale. Consequently, ocean heat content will continue to increase, leading to long-term sea-level rise even if emissions are significantly reduced. This committed response, driven by past greenhouse gas emissions, must be accounted for in any long-term climate adaptation planning.

Get ready for a '1.5 world'! The Paris Agreement has fallen. Just released by the WMO, the State of the Global Climate 2024 is nothing new to climate scientists but brings together all the latest results into an integrated report that highlights two main themes, one obvious and one not. The impact is obvious and increasing but the actual steps that countries like Australia need to take devolve to our geopolitical situation, our technology, and our political will to acquit a moral duty to our children as we head into the next election. A recent report by Save the Children says your average five-year old now faces a future with seven times more heatwaves, triple the floods, droughts and crop failures, double the wildfires.

In this latest WMO report we see the on the first theme, global impact, the evidence has been mounting for a decade and the report outlines what we already know – 2024 was the first year with every month above +1.5 °C signalling a 20-year period of breakthrough warming and the falling of the lower target of the Paris Agreement; indeed, American climatologist James Hansen warned only last month that we’d reach +2 °C within two decades. The spectre of runaway climate change looms large – we now have a third of the arctic at tipping point and permafrost melt heating three times faster than the rest of the world. We’re using the SR1.5 budget of remaining carbon emissions to the 2050 net zero deadline much faster than we can mitigate or adapt using renewables and changing human consumption patterns. 2024 was the hottest year in 175 years of observations; sea levels are rising at double the rate; carbon emissions higher than the past 800,000 years. 

On the less obvious theme, what we as Australians can actually do about it, we have some devilishly wicked problems at hand. We’ve spent decades as one of the world’s highest emitters per person and our economy relies on exporting dirty fuels, which are not counted in the country’s carbon budget. Our net zero strategy relies on carbon credits and these are being mishandled and misreported. Our population, like many advanced economies, is buffeted by the dual threats of a changing climate, from mega fires to floods, the cascade of costs for adaptation and insurance, as well as soaring inequalities and cost of living crises that form deeper socioeconomic obstacles to climate action.  

Geopolitically, we simply cannot solve climate change without addressing inequality across and within nations - the global policy lever for international law will likely rely on emissions per capita. Nuclear is not the answer as it costs too much. Broad-based change to sustainable cities and socioeconomic systems based on utilising some excellent new technologies and embracing both the SDGs and Kate Raworth’s doughnut economics model could allow Australia to mitigate, adapt and flourish. But it needs political action now.