Media release

From: Springer Nature

Climate change: Mineral shortages could limit the low-carbon transition

Shortages of certain minerals could limit global climate mitigation strategies according to research published in Nature Climate Change. These minerals, including silver and tin, are essential for the decarbonisation of energy systems and ensuring less than 1.5 °C or 2 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100. The findings highlight the need for strategies that address emissions reductions and mineral resource security, improved recycling, materials substitution and international cooperation.

Meeting the Paris Agreement climate targets requires sustainable access to critical materials to develop low-carbon sources of energy. For example, lithium and cobalt are essential components used in electric vehicles and energy storage, while tellurium and gallium are needed for solar panels. Therefore, a shortage of these materials could hinder progress towards renewable energy transitions.

Yi-Ming Wei and colleagues quantified the global and regional demand and risk of a shortage of 40 critical minerals across 17 technologies, such as solar, wind and biomass power generation, under various Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mitigation pathways. They find that across the 557 mitigation pathways tested, under improvements to technology and recycling, all scenarios face a shortage of up to 12 minerals by 2100 while remaining under 2 °C of pre-industrial warming. These minerals include indium, iridium, tin, lithium and silver. Wei and co-authors find that these shortages could affect multiple technologies such as solar, wind and nuclear power as well as energy storage batteries, and some developing countries — including those in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia — could face shortages of up to 24 minerals.

The authors note that these shortages could be addressed by substituting technologies for higher efficiency options, such as replacing current cobalt-containing battery systems with alternatives, such as lithium iron phosphate. Although, this approach could increase shortages of other minerals in turn. More broadly, Wei and colleagues suggest closer trade cooperation among nations and increasing recycling efficiency to mitigate potential mineral shortages.