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The Lancet: Climate change inaction being paid for in millions of lives every year
- New global findings in the 9th annual indicator report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change reveal that the continued over reliance on fossil fuels and failure to adapt to climate change is being paid in people’s lives, health, and livelihoods, with 12 of 20 indicators tracking health threats reaching unprecedented levels.
- The report says failure to curb the warming effects of climate change has seen the rate of heat-related deaths surge 23% since the 1990s, to 546,000 a year. In 2024 alone, air pollution from wildfire smoke was linked to a record 154,000 deaths, while the global average transmission potential of dengue has risen by up to 49% since the 1950s.
- Authors say 2.5 million deaths every year are attributable to the air pollution that comes from continued burning of fossil fuels. This is also straining national budgets – as fossil fuel prices soared, governments collectively spent 956 billion US dollars on net fossil fuel subsidies in 2023. Meanwhile oil and gas giants keep expanding their production plans – to a scale three times greater than a liveable planet can support.
- While some governments backtrack on climate commitments, the report also exposes the life-saving impact of action already underway. An estimated 160,000 lives are being saved annually from the shift away from coal and the resultant cleaner air, while renewable energy generation reached record-highs. The report reveals the emerging leadership of local governments, communities, organisations and the health sector, and calls for “all hands on deck” to accelerate progress.
**Country Data Sheets available – see Notes to Editors**
As health threats from climate change reach unprecedented levels and political backsliding on climate action threatens to stall progress, the 2025 Report of The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change issues a fresh clarion call for “all hands on deck” to accelerate and intensify efforts to simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and adapt to climate change.
“This year’s health stocktake paints a bleak and undeniable picture of the devastating health harms reaching all corners of the world – with record-breaking threats to health from heat, extreme weather events, and wildfire smoke killing millions. The destruction to lives and livelihoods will continue to escalate until we end our fossil fuel addiction and dramatically up our game to adapt,” warned Dr Marina Romanello, Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown at University College London.
She added, “We already have the solutions at hand to avoid a climate catastrophe – and communities and local governments around the world are proving that progress is possible. From clean energy growth to city adaptation, action is underway and delivering real health benefits – but we must keep up the momentum. Rapidly phasing out fossil fuels remains the most powerful lever to slow climate change and protect lives. At the same time, shifting to healthier, climate-friendly diets and more sustainable agricultural systems would massively cut pollution, greenhouse gases and deforestation, potentially saving over ten million lives a year."
The 9th Lancet Countdown annual indicator report, led by University College London, and produced in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO), represents the work of 128 leading experts from 71 academic institutions and UN agencies globally. Published ahead of the 30th UN Conference of the Parties (COP), the report provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of the connections between climate change and health, including new metrics which record deaths from extreme heat and wildfire smoke, the coverage of urban blue spaces (rivers, lakes, and coastlines), health adaptation funding and individual engagement with health and climate change.
Record-breaking health toll of the persistent over reliance on fossil fuels and adaptation delays
The year 2024 was the hottest on record, with catastrophic consequences for the health, lives, and livelihoods of people across the globe, says the report. Worldwide, the average person was exposed to a record extra 16 health-threatening hot days owing directly to climate change, with the most vulnerable (those aged under 1 year and over 65 years) experiencing, on average, an all-time high of 20 heatwave days—a 389% and 304% increase, respectively, from the 1986–2005 yearly average.
In parallel, a new indicator in this year’s report reveals that heat-related mortality per 100,000 increased by 23% since the 1990s, with total heat-related deaths reaching an average of 546,000 annually between 2012 and 2021.
Hotter and dryer conditions have also fuelled conditions for wildfires, with fine particle pollution (PM 2.5) from wildfire smoke resulting in a record 154,000 deaths in 2024 (up 36% from the 2003–2012 yearly average), while droughts and heatwaves increased the number of people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity by 123 million in 2023, compared to the annual average between 1981 and 2010.
Added to this, delays in the adoption of clean, climate-friendly energy means over 2 billion people still use polluting and unreliable fuels in their homes. Across 65 countries with low access to clean energy, air pollution from the household use of dirty fuels resulted in 2.3 million avoidable deaths in 2022; including some of the 2.52 million deaths still attributable to ambient air pollution from the burning of fossil fuels globally. Unsustainable food systems are also fuelling climate change, and high-carbon, unhealthy diets contributed to 11.8 million diet-related deaths in 2022, which could largely be avoided by transitioning to healthier, climate-friendly food systems.
More broadly, the report highlights climate change is increasingly destroying livelihoods, straining the economy, and burdening health budgets. Heat exposure resulted in a record 639 billion potential hours of lost labour productivity in 2024, with income losses equivalent to a staggering US$ 1.09 trillion (almost 1% of global GDP). At the same time, the costs of heat-related deaths in those over age 65 reached an all-time high of US$ 261 billion.
In response to soaring fossil fuel prices, and with outdated energy grids overly reliant on them, governments around the world poured US$ 956 billion into net fossil fuel subsidies in 2023 to keep energy locally affordable – increasing fiscal pressures and dwarfing the $300 billion a year committed to support the most climate-vulnerable countries made at COP29. Concerningly, 15 out of 87 countries responsible for 93% of global CO2 emissions spent more on net fossil fuel subsidies than their national health budgets in 2023.
As Dr Romanello explained, “The increased affordability and accessibility of clean renewable energy presents an opportunity to increase local energy generation, reduce the health harms of fossil fuels, and support the redirection of fossil fuel subsidies towards promoting a healthier future.”
Also publishing today is the 2025 Latin America Report of the Lancet Countdown, which also identifies an alarming intensification and confluence of climate hazards. Professor Stella Hartinger, Director of the Lancet Countdown Latin America and global report author, said, “Around the world we are seeing these multiple health impacts compound each other to trigger a cascade of harms that undermine the very social and economic foundations that support people’s health and wellbeing. After nine years of global monitoring, it’s clear that these health harms are the price we are paying for the consistent failure of global leaders to deliver the action needed to combat climate change and protect health – a price paid most severely by vulnerable countries that have contributed the least to the crisis.”
Authors say delays in adaptation are exacerbating the health harms of climate change. “Scarce financial support for adaptation remains a key barrier, and data in this report shows it is still grossly insufficient to cover the financial needs disclosed by countries,” said Dr Romanello. “A political shift towards reduced foreign aid support from some of the world’s wealthiest countries, further restricts financial support for climate change action, leaving all populations increasingly unprotected.”
Political backsliding on climate commitments will exacerbate threats to people’s health and survival
Added to these growing harms, the report says political backsliding on climate and health action threatens to condemn millions to a future of disease, disasters, and early death. And yet, emboldened by growing profits and a fractured political consensus on climate commitments, the world’s 100 largest fossil fuel giants have increased their projected production (as of March 2025), which would lead to their GHG emissions surpassing levels compatible with 1.5°C almost three times over by 2040, pushing the possibilities of health protecting adaptation efforts out of reach.
Private banks are supporting this deadly fossil fuel expansion, with the top 40 lenders to the fossil fuel sector collectively investing a 5-year high of US$ 611 billion in 2024 (up 29% from 2023). This exceeded their green sector lending by 15%, further hindering the zero-emission energy transition, threatening public health and jeopardising national economies on which people’s livelihoods depend.
While energy-related emissions break new record-highs, over 128 million hectares of forest were destroyed in 2023 (up 24% since 2022), diminishing the world’s natural capacity to mitigate climate change.
“The stark reality is that one of the greatest threats to human prosperity comes from leaders and companies who are rolling back on climate commitments, delaying action, and doubling down on fossil fuel production - meanwhile each unit of greenhouse gases emitted drives up the costs and challenges of adaptation,” said Professor Nadia Ameli, Lancet Countdown Working Group 4 Co-Chair. “If we remain locked into fossil fuel dependence, health systems, cooling infrastructure, and disaster response capacities will soon be overwhelmed - putting the health and lives of the world’s 8 billion people further at risk.”
Countries facing the worst consequences consistently track as the most politically engaged in climate change and health, yet they are being left behind in the clean energy transition. Deeply unequal access to technology and clean energies is leaving the most vulnerable communities reliant on dirty, harmful fuels. Just 3.5% of electricity comes from clean renewables in low-income countries compared with 13.3% in wealthy countries, while 88% of households in poorer countries still reply on polluting biomass to cook and heat their homes.
Seizing the global momentum for health-promoting climate action
While some national governments roll back on climate commitments, the report outlines that local governments, individuals, civil society, and the health sector are leading the way in shaping a healthier future, signalling what could be the start of transformative climate action. A growing number of cities (834 of 858 reporting in 2024) have completed or intend to complete climate change risk assessments, according to the CDP (the world’s largest voluntary reporting system on climate change progress). The health sector itself has shown impressive climate leadership, with health-related GHG emissions falling 16% globally between 2021 and 2022, and almost two-thirds of medical students around the world received climate and health education in 2024, building capacity for further progress.
According to the report, the global momentum for climate change action is already delivering associated health and economic benefits. An increased shift away from coal, particularly in wealthy countries, prevented an estimated 160,000 premature deaths yearly between 2010 and 2022, due to fine particulate (PM 2.5) air pollution from burning fossil fuels. The share of electricity generated by modern renewables reached a record-high 12% in 2022, with the clean energy transition generating healthier, more sustainable jobs. Globally, over 16 million people worked directly or indirectly in renewables in 2023 (up 18.3% from 2022).
As Professor Tafadzwa Mahbhaudi, Director of the Lancet Countdown Africa explained, “Climate change action remains one of the greatest health opportunities of the 21st century, also driving development, spurring innovation, creating jobs, and reducing energy poverty. Realising the myriad benefits of a health-centred response requires unlocking so-far untapped opportunities to mitigate climate change and build resilience to the impacts already being felt.”
As Professor Anthony Costello, Co-Chair of the Lancet Countdown warned, “As a rising number of world leaders threaten to reverse the little progress to date, urgent efforts are needed at every level and in every sector to both deliver and demand accelerated action that will yield immediate health benefits. As some governments uphold an unsustainable, unhealthy and ultimately unliveable status quo, people around the world are paying the ultimate price. We have to build on the momentum we have seen from local action: Delivering health-protective, equitable, and just transition requires all hands on deck.”
Australia specific data
The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change annually takes stock of the evolving links between health and climate change through 50+ peer-reviewed indicators. This document summarises key country-level findings from the 2025 Global Report of the Lancet Countdown, compiled for journalists.
Climate change is increasingly harming health, claiming lives, and harming livelihoods and the economy in Australia
In 2024, people in Australia were exposed to 8.1 heatwave days each, on average. Of these, 5.4 (67%) would not have been expected to occur without climate change.
The annual number of deaths attributable to heat increased 83% from 1990-1999 to 2012-2021, reaching a total annual average of 980 annual deaths per year. If normalising for total deaths, the fraction of total deaths that can be attributed to heat exposure increased by 44%.
Compared to 1990-1999, in 2024, people were exposed on average to 165 more hours during which ambient heat would have posed a moderate or higher risk of heat stress if undertaking moderate outdoor physical activity. This was a record high
In 2024, heat exposure resulted in a loss of over 175 million potential labour hours, a record high 12h per person, 161% more than the 1990-1999 annual average. 58% of these hours were lost in the construction sector. The
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associated potential income lost from labour capacity reduction due to extreme heat was US$5.4 billion in 2024.
From 2012-2021, Australia saw an estimated 980 heat-related deaths annually, an 83% increase from the 1990-1999 average.
In 2020-2024, wildfire smoke (PM2.5) caused an annual average of 250 deaths in Australia, but this represents a drop from 367 in 2003-2012
From 2020-2024, 43% of Australia land area on average experienced at least 1 month of extreme drought per year.
Average sea surface coastal temperature in Australia was 0.4°C higher in 2024 than the average for 1990-1999, putting marine ecosystems and marine food security at risk.
The delay in transitioning away from fossil fuels and towards healthy, renewable energy is costing lives and straining the economy
Australia had a net-negative carbon revenue in 2023, indicating that fossil fuel subsidies were higher than carbon prices. Australia allocated a net total of US$ 10.8 billion to net fossil fuel subsidies in 2023 alone.
Between 2016 and 2022, CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion in Australia declined 8% to 355,000 kilotonnes
As of 2022, coal still made up 32% of total energy and 49% of electricity in Australia. As of 2022, renewable energy made up 30% of all electricity in Australia – up from 13% in 2016.
In 2022, 52% of household energy came from electricity; however, 31% came from natural gas, and 10% from highly polluting solid biofuels.
In 2022, fossil fuels still accounted for 99.6% of all road transport energy; electricity accounted for less than 0.1%
There were over 3,400 deaths attributable to anthropogenic air pollution (PM2.5) in 2022 in Australia. Fossil fuels (coal and liquid gas) contributed to 59% of these deaths in 2022. Of these, 68% came from the use of petrol in the transport sector, and over 550 from deaths still came from the burning of coal, primarily in the power sector.
In 2022, the monetised value of premature mortality due to air pollution in Australia amounted to US$14.9 billion.
Transitions in the food and agricultural sectors could bring major benefits to the health of people in Australia
In 2022, red meat and dairy accounted for 90% of all agricultural product consumption-related emissions in Australia.
The excess consumption of red meat and diary contributed to 14,559 deaths in Australia in 2022, while 9,622 deaths were associated with insufficient consumption of nutritious plant-based foods.
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In 2023, Australia lost 190,000 hectares of tree cover. 61% of the tree cover lost in 2023 was due to wildfires, and 35% due to forestry.
In 2022, Australia had 1155kg per person of greenhouse gas emissions from the healthcare sector. While this represents a 4% reduction from 2016, Australia is the 13th country in the world with the highest healthcare-related emissions per person.
Expert Reaction
These comments have been collated by the Science Media Centre to provide a variety of expert perspectives on this issue. Feel free to use these quotes in your stories. Views expressed are the personal opinions of the experts named. They do not represent the views of the SMC or any other organisation unless specifically stated.
Professor John Quiggin is a Professor of Economics at the University of Queensland
"As well as heat, and pollution from coal-fired power, the report shows that climate change is exacerbating wildfire and the associated health risks, The 2019 bushfires in Australia contributed to hundreds of deaths, as a result of toxic smoke pollution."
Assiciate Professor Paul Read is at Charles Sturt University and Director of the Future Emergency Resilience Network (FERN)
This paper, written by 128 multidisciplinary experts, is an urgent call to global action and Australia, once again, is not immune. As I state later, we are subsidising murder. Globally, we have already breached the +1.5 degree limit of the Paris Agreement in 2024 and this paper clearly outlines the massive health and economic effects rippling across world economies whilst at the same time warning us emphatically that we are now headed for a catastrophic +2.7 degree increase within 75 years.
This I would argue is conservative as many have put far larger increases by 2060 and much earlier.
Climate change is already causing massive death and economic suffering from heat exposure, drought, natural disasters and flooding. The health impacts I would argue are the proper outcome metrics of human flourishing but the economic costs are already far surpassing (for example, Stern's) earlier estimates and now represent US$1 trillion and 1% of global domestic product. The world's poor, young and elderly are the most impacted whereas the wealthier countries and the richest within those countries are least affected whilst most to blame.
This is not some vast conspiracy but a simple verifiable fact. Of the 20 indicators tracking global health in this report, 12 breached unprecedented levels in 2024, leading to direct deaths from heat exposure, natural disasters, food insecurity, overconsumption, and transmissible diseases from parasites, all caused by climate change.
In Australia, where we continue to subsidise fossil fuels and resist the call to curb emissions, the paper outlines some uncomfortable facts. In 2024, Australians copped 8.1 heatwave days each and deaths increased 83% compared to the 1990s, a record high, with 175 million lost labour hours 161% greater than the 1990s, also a record high. We lost US$5.4 billion in productivity – an issue not even covered by our recent productivity roundtable. 43% of Australia suffered at least one month of extreme drought. Whether you like veganism or not, the fact is that meat-based consumption leads to both 90% of agricultural carbon emissions and about 25,000 Australian deaths per year from cardiovascular disease.
In 2023, we lost 190,000 hectares of tree cover, 61% from wildfires and 35% from forestry. And yet, with all of this, the paper also says Australia had a net-negative carbon revenue in 2023, indicating that fossil fuel subsidies were higher than carbon prices. Australia allocated a net total of US$10.8 billion to net fossil fuel subsidies in 2023 alone and fossil fuels (coal and liquid gas) contributed to 59% of air pollution deaths in 2022. This is, in effect, subsidised murder.
We are not doing enough and our children are already suffering. This is indeed a climate crisis, most Australians know it by the science, and they are increasingly angry with obfuscation by politicians, the media, and the vested interests that own them.
Dr Arnagretta Hunter is a physician and cardiologist and is the Human Futures Fellow at ANU.
"This Lancet report follows on from the Climate Risk Assessment in highlighting the deep impact of climate change on human health today - with sobering future predictions. Australia’s temperature related mortality is rising and warrants serious discussion in communities around the country today."
Dr Melanie Zeppel is the Manager, Natural Capital and Carbon Analytics, at New Forests
"The Lancet Countdown on Planetary Health is an incredibly valuable, if not sobering report, highlighting health conditions impacted by climate change. For example, premature births, kidney disease, heart attacks and deaths all increase during heat waves, which most impact vulnerable populations, including those over 65 years and under one year. In addition The Countdown also quantifies the number of heat-related deaths, with a 44% increase in Australia, and the number of lives saved from the shift to renewable energy."
Matthew Flinders Professor of Water Economics Sarah Wheeler is from the College of Business Government and Law at Flinders University
"This 2025 Lancet health and climate change report is absolutely devasting and mind-blowing in its thorough examination of the health costs and damages from climate change. The human health costs of climate change are rising, and exposure is growing, with the costs so large that the trillions almost tend to fade into one another.
There are many facts and figures forensically outlining the issues in this report, but two things stood out for me. First, Australia was one of the countries with the largest tree cover loss (loss increased by over 60%) between 2022 and 2023. Second, most countries reviewed had fossil fuel subsidies, while 15 of the countries reviewed spent more on fossil fuel subsidies than they did on their own health budget. Although the article did outline where progress is being achieved, the report still provides a wake up call for urgent action on climate change."
Milton Speer is a Visiting Fellow in the School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences at the University of Technology Sydney
“It is indisputable that for many locations worldwide and in Australia that both maximum and minimum temperatures have increased significantly since the 1990s.
In Australia heat related deaths have increased because during the warm season and particularly summer, maximum temperatures are increasingly appearing in the top 90% since the 1990s compared to decades prior to the 1990s. Higher minimum temperatures also affect health by making it more difficult to sleep in economically deprived areas.
Also, increasing droughts from climate change-induced higher temperatures and altered rainfall patterns due to atmospheric circulation changes threaten food productivity, compromise water security and increase the risk of waterborne infectious diseases.
The combination of increased heat, increased moisture availability from warming oceans together with changes in the atmospheric circulation have led to devastating extreme rainfall events worldwide, and as the report states, the rate of increase in all types of these extreme events has been alarming in the last 5 years or so.”
