CORRECTION: EXPERT REACTION: Australia [has not] recorded zero COVID-19 deaths for at least a week 

The graph on the Federal Health website showing COVID-19 associated deaths is based on date of death, but there are delays between when a death occurs and when it is reported. So for the most recent month shown, the number of deaths is vastly understated as not all deaths have been reported. This is particularly the case for the most recent week, where it is almost impossible for a death to happen and for it to be captured in the Federal database. As such, to state that there have been no COVID-19 deaths in the last week based on this graph is simply not true.

A similar situation arises for the graph of hospital admissions, but the delays are not as long - a matter of days rather than weeks.  However, it does mean that the most recent point is significantly understated. As such, to compare hospital admissions for the most recent point to earlier periods is not valid.

While this is encouraging data, it’s almost certainly not correct that there were 0 COVID deaths in that week. Instead, our near real-time reporting system for reporting of deaths has mostly wound down and we now need to rely on the slower ABS reporting which tends to occur at about a 2 month delay.

A recent story in the Australian science magazine Cosmos, is titled  “Australia has weathered the COVID-19 storm”, and points to the fact that for the first time in years, we have had a week with no COVID-19-related deaths, with hospital numbers the lowest since January 2022.

Clearly, we are in a trough after the wave caused by the subvariant JN.1 at the end of last year. However, that trough is still at a fairly high level, with over 22,000 confirmed cases so far in March, and presumably many times that number of actual cases. In fact, Professor James Wood, an expert COVID-19 modeler, and member of ATAGI, estimates that between 20% and 25% of the Australian population were infected over this last wave.

The subvariant JN.1 and its descendants now account for pretty much all infections in Australia. However, the CDC and its European equivalent are now monitoring another highly mutated subvariant called BA.2.87.1. This has, so far, been detected in South Africa and South East Asia. Although it appears to only have slow growth, that was also true of BA.2.86.1 which then mutated into JN.1.

Although Australia is in its best position with respect to COVID-19 for some time, we should not get complacent. Last month there were over 250 active COVID-19 outbreaks in residential aged care homes, and only 36% of Australians aged 75 and over have had a booster shot within the last six months. We see very little messaging from any of our governments encouraging elderly people to get vaccinated. This is not good enough. We should at the very least still be doing all we can to protect our vulnerable population.

The fact that the weekly number of deaths from COVID-19 fell to zero for the first time since pretty much the beginning of the pandemic does seem like a significant milestone worth acknowledging. It serves as a clear indicator of where we are now when it comes to this disease that turned our lives upside down, and it highlights how much the overall threat that COVID-19 poses to us as a population has fallen since the beginning of the pandemic.

Principally it demonstrates how improved immunity - through vaccination and prior infection, improved treatments, and a better understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 virus - has fundamentally altered the impact of COVID-19 on society since its emergence.

Of course, whilst acknowledging this significant milestone, we need to understand that COVID-19 is a disease that is here to stay and which we need to continue to respond to. The SARS-CoV-2 virus still poses many challenges for us, among them, learning how to manage and treat the longer-term effects of infection.

These latest figures showing no COVID-19-related deaths for at least a week and low hospitalisations for the first time in years is great news but not unexpected.

Omicron subvariants have continued to dominate the global COVID landscape for over two years. This means that the combination of immunity from natural infection with Omicron subvariants, in addition to vaccine-induced immunity, has had a positive impact on levels of severe COVID-19. In addition, the free early access to antivirals such as Paxlovid to people at risk of severe COVID-19 has further put Australia in a great position to dampen severe disease from this virus.

There is a caveat though, namely that COVID-19 is still circulating and it isn’t going anywhere. Like influenza, it will mutate. And like influenza, a big mutation, for example, into a new variant (which will be Pi, the next letter in the Greek alphabet), could lead to a significant outbreak of COVID-19. However, even if this occurs, we still have effective antivirals to protect people at risk.

In Australia, the virus appears to be following a similar pattern to what was seen for the Spanish Flu pandemic (1918-19) with successive peaks of COVID-19 cases becoming smaller with each wave. 

This is encouraging and no doubt a reflection of the high levels of vaccination attained in the Australian population. 

Observations from research conducted in the USA need to take this into account when trying to consider the effects of Long COVID on either population. 

It is equally important not to become complacent with strategies that continue to reduce the number of observed COVID-19 cases.

The report from the Federal Department of Health and the news article highlight that cases of COVID-19 have come down in Australia, in hospital presentations and in aged care homes. There are also increasingly low and no deaths from COVID-19 itself. This is a good sign as it indicates there is herd immunity from people having had COVID-19 globally and vaccination uptake.

I have extensively travelled both in the developing (South Asia and Africa) and developed world (in Australia and the USA) since last year and have been in settings where there have been large gatherings. Most people I met and interacted with were aware about COVID-19 but were not worried. Only a few people wear masks on planes, at gatherings/events, and if they are feeling unwell.

There are vaccinations available for most variants and anti-virals are available if needed and people are making their own choices if they want to take boosters or anti-virals. There is an awareness that the vaccines reduce severity of disease, especially for those who have chronic conditions, are immunocompromised and the elderly.

We may continue to see spikes, especially during the winter months, as has been the case in other countries along with RSV [Respiratory Syncytial Virus] and the flu but this can be managed within our health system efficiently.