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The Lancet: More than 64,000 traumatic injury deaths occurred in the Gaza Strip between 7th October 2023 and 30th June 2024, study estimates
A new study published in The Lancet estimates that 64,260* people are likely to have died from traumatic injury in the Gaza Strip between 7th October 2023 and 30th June 2024, 41% higher than the number of deaths reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health during that time period (37,877 deaths). This equates to a death rate of 39.3 per 1,000 people, a 14-fold increase compared to the death rate before the 7th October 2023. The majority of deaths (59%) occurred among women, children and the elderly.
The researchers used a statistical method known as ‘capture-recapture analysis’ to estimate the number of traumatic injury deaths. This method overlaps data from multiple sources to arrive at estimates of deaths when not all data are recorded. The sources included Palestinian Ministry of Health hospital morgue records, a respondent-driven online survey, and social media obituaries.
The authors explain their estimates are for deaths caused by traumatic injury only and do not account for non-trauma related deaths resulting from health service disruption, food insecurity and inadequate water and sanitation. They highlight some limitations of the study, including challenges in reconciling variations in name spellings and translations. Additionally, the authors assumed the hospital and survey lists also included traumatic injury deaths only however some non-trauma deaths may have been included, potentially resulting in an overestimation. Conversely, people reported as missing were excluded from the analysis which could lead to an underestimation.
Authors say their findings highlight the urgent need for international interventions and expanded humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip and protection of healthcare personnel, ambulances and static health facilities, so that people with traumatic injuries can access timely and appropriate care.
*Range of 55,298 deaths to 78,525 deaths
