What are your chances of death or long-term symptoms six months after catching COVID?

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The risks of long Covid and death are higher for unvaccinated people six months after catching COVID-19 than those who got jabbed, finds a US study looking at the data of 13 million veterans. Compared to not getting infected in the first place, vaccinated people who got a breakthrough infection have a 1.75 times higher risk of death six months after getting sick - and a 1.5 times higher risk of symptoms linked to long COVID. Furthermore, these risks after a breakthrough Covid infection are higher than in people with seasonal flu. The authors say these results should be used to better prevent breakthrough infections in the first place instead of relying solely on vaccination, and to optimise care for affected people.

Journal/conference: Nature Medicine

Link to research (DOI): 10.1038/s41591-022-01840-0

Organisation/s: VA Saint Louis Health Care System, Veterans Research and Education Foundation of Saint Louis, Washington University School of Medicine, Saint Louis University (US)

Funder: This study used data from the VA COVID-19 Shared Data Resource. This research was funded by the US Department of Veterans Affairs (Z.A.-A.) and two American Society of Nephrology and KidneyCure fellowship awards (B.B. and Y.X.). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. The contents do not represent the views of the US Department of Veterans Affairs or the US government. No competing interests declared.

Media release

From: Springer Nature

COVID-19: Risk of death and long COVID following SARS-CoV-2 infection post-vaccination

People who get COVID-19 after vaccination can still experience symptoms associated with long COVID 6 months after diagnosis, according to a study of over 13 million veterans in the United States published in Nature Medicine. These risks and those for death are lower than they are in unvaccinated people with COVID-19, but are higher than they are in those with seasonal influenza. The research suggests that continued optimization of strategies for the prevention of infection, as well as developing care pathways for long COVID, are needed.

Symptoms of long COVID after infection with SARS-CoV-2 have been documented. However, whether these are also associated with infection with SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination — also known as breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection (BTI) — is currently unknown.

Ziyad Al-Aly and colleagues investigated the long- and short-term risks associated with BTI in vaccinated people (33,940 in total) — defined as those who had completed a full vaccination program with one dose of the Janssen vaccine or two doses of the Moderna or Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines — versus several control groups (13,335,133 people in total), using national healthcare data from the US Department of Veteran Affairs. The authors estimate that vaccinated people who experience BTI have a higher risk of death (an additional 13.36 deaths per 1,000 people) and of developing associated symptoms of long COVID, such as pulmonary and cardiovascular disorders (122.22 more people per 1,000 experiencing at least one symptom), at 6 months after diagnosis. This is compared with those who had never recorded a positive test for SARS-CoV-2.

The authors found that during the first 30 days after diagnosis of COVID-19 as a result of BTI, for vaccinated people there were 10.99 fewer deaths per 1,000 people and 43.38 fewer people per 1,000 who experienced at least one symptom, compared with unvaccinated people who had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (113,474 in total). In separate analyses, vaccinated people who were hospitalized with BTI (3,667 in total) had a higher estimated risk of death (43.58 more deaths per 1,000) and of developing symptoms of long COVID (87.59 additional people per 1,000 who experienced at least one symptom) in the first 30 days after diagnosis than that of people who were hospitalized with seasonal influenza (14,337 in total).

The authors conclude that these results could be used to help enhance strategies aimed at both preventing BTI and optimizing care for those who are affected.

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