Media release

From: The Royal Society

Environmental and ecological signals predict food shortages for subtropical Australian flying fox populations, reservoir of Hendra virus

Biology Letters

We analyzed decades of environmental and ecological data to predict food shortage periods for Australian flying foxes (Pteropus spp.). Using weather patterns, climatic indices including El Niño, wildlife rehabilitation admissions, and body condition metrics from rescued bats, we developed a forecasting approach that detects shortage signals several months in advance. Previous research has demonstrated that food-stressed bat populations relocate to urban and agricultural areas, increasing Hendra virus spillover risk to horses. Our forecasting framework provides proof-of-concept for early warning systems that could inform wildlife management strategies and public health interventions to mitigate spillover risk.