Media release

From: Springer Nature

Food: Hot weather linked to short-term food insecurity

Weeks when temperatures are particularly hot are associated with higher household food insecurity, which may be due to reduced household income during these periods, according to a paper in Nature Human Behaviour. The findings suggest that employment may be a factor in understanding the link between heat and food insecurity.

Food insecurity affects two billion people globally, and hotter temperatures can contribute to this by damaging crops and reducing harvests. However, particularly hot periods can also mean that people are unable to work and earn an income. For example, hot periods can create physical strain for workers, reducing their productivity or work hours.

Carolin Kroeger used household survey data from 150 countries to examine evidence for an association between household income, food insecurity and particularly hot weeks — defined as a week in which at least three days have temperatures that fall into the hottest 10% in the year in a particular region. The data included responses to interviews from 2014 to 2017 about food insecurity over the past year, with yes or no questions such as ‘were you worried you would not have enough food to eat?’ and ‘whether your household ran out of food,’ corresponding to scales of food insecurity (mild-to-moderate, moderate-to-severe and severe). The results show that there is a short-term link between hot temperatures and food insecurity, and that this is mediated by reduced household income. A model based on these data suggests, for example, that if a country with the population of India experienced a particularly hot week, an additional 8.07 million people would probably experience moderate-to-severe food insecurity.

The model suggests that a week of hot temperatures is associated with a 0.58% increase in household food insecurity, and 63.35% of this is mediated by whether respondents reported difficulties getting by on present income. These effects are higher in countries where incomes are lower or agricultural employment is higher.

The author suggests that, in addition to considering the longer-term agricultural impacts of climate change and heatwaves on food insecurity, policymakers should also consider the importance of the ability of people to work. During hot periods, weekly income may be a key factor in determining whether a household experiences food insecurity.

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Springer Nature is committed to boosting the visibility of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and relevant information and evidence published in our journals and books. The research described in this press release pertains to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). More information can be found here.