Super-spreader events may cement new COVID-19 variants

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2022-04-06 09:01

International

US scientists using computer modeling say COVID-19 variants are more likely to dominate if they are linked with a super-spreader event - of more than five COVID-19 infections per day - soon after they emerge, helping to explain why some new variants take hold while others disappear. Their simulations reveal that most new variants only infect some individuals before fading out, in the absence of a super-spreader event. The authors say this raises an intriguing theory - that other coronaviruses with pandemic potential frequently infect humans. They say ongoing public health efforts can delay new variants of concern by dampening spread, and help mitigate fresh pandemics from other viruses.

Media release

From: The Royal Society

Novel variants have prolonged the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to countless infections and deaths. Although vaccines have remained at least partially efficacious against variants, continued emergence increases the risk of variants that evade immunity. Superspreading (one individual infecting many others) is a key feature of COVID-19 persistence. Here we show that it is also a key explanatory variable for why some emerging variants take hold. We predict a precarious scenario in which dangerous variants are commonly created, but often die out if they are not involved in a superspreading event. These findings help us to understand past emergence and highlight the importance of preventing superspreading events through widespread vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions.

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Research The Royal Society, Web page URL after publication

Journal/
conference: Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Research:Paper

Organisation/s: Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, US.

Funder: Funding was provided by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (grant no. R01 AI121129-05S1 to J.T.S. and K25 AI55224-01 to D.B.R.) as well as the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (Inform Public Health Decision Making Funding Opportunity) and the Washington Research Foundation. The authors have no competing interests.

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