Spotting the next dominant COVID-19 variant

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2021-12-15 03:00

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New COVID-19 variants are arising all the time, but only a few will outcompete the others and become a dominant strain like Delta did, say US scientists. They've devised two computer models which can help predict which variants will go big, and which will peter out. The models take into account movements of variants within and between countries, they say, and could be used to figure out which emerging variants are likely to become dominant. When variants emerge, a lack of data makes it hard to determine whether they pose a big risk, but the researchers say their estimates stabilise after several weeks, as more data becomes available. The models highlight the differences between countries, they say, demonstrating the need for a truly global perspective on the spread of COVID-19.

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Journal/
conference: Nature Communications

Research:Paper

Organisation/s: Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA

Funder: Portions of this work were done under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract 89233218CNA000001 and supported by National Institutes of Health (www.nih.gov) grants P01-AI131365, R01-OD011095, and R01-AI028433 (CHvD). RK, NH, and ERS were funded by the US National Science Foundation RAPID grant PHY 2031756. Research presented in this article was supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory under project numbers 20210528CR and 20210887ER.

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