Numbers speak louder than words when communicating uncertainty in statistics

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2023-11-22 11:01

New Zealand; International

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Uncertainty in statistics is inevitable, but does being transparent about this undermine trust? A study with more than 10,000 participants across 12 countries revealed that stating uncertainty as a numeric range slightly decreased trust in COVID statistics compared to when no uncertainty was communicated, but did not impact trust in the information source. However, using vague expressions of uncertainty — just saying the number could be higher or lower — reduced trust in both the numbers and the source.

Media release

From: The Royal Society

Does being transparent about uncertainty undermine trust? In a large experiment (10,000 people in 12 countries), we found that communicating uncertainty around COVID statistics as a numeric range, compared to no uncertainty, leads people to rate the information as slightly less trustworthy. But this has no effect on how trustworthy people find the source of the information. However, communicating statistics with vague expressions of uncertainty—just saying the number could be higher or lower—does result in people rating the source as less trustworthy. We do not recommend doing this; use numbers to communicate uncertainty where possible.

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Research The Royal Society, Web page

Journal/
conference: Royal Society Open Science

Research:Paper

Organisation/s: University of Otago, University of Cambridge, University of Groningen, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

Funder: Funding was provided for these studies by the Nuffield Foundation (Grant OSP/43227). The Foundation has funded this project, but the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily the Foundation. Additional funding was provided by the Winton Centre for Risk & Evidence Communication which is supported by a donation from the David & Claudia Harding Foundation.

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