Aging: The increase in human life expectancy is slowing down

The rise in human life expectancy may be slowing down, according to an analysis of data from nine regions around the world from the past three decades, published in Nature Aging. The findings have important implications for social, health, and economic policies, the authors suggest.

During the 20th century, improvements in public health and medicine led to increases in human life expectancy of around 3 years per decade in long-lived populations. However, predicting how life expectancy will progress this century has been a topic of debate. Some forecasts from the 1990s suggested that long-lived populations were approaching an upper limit to life expectancy, but others predicted that most children born in the 21st century would live to be 100 years old or more.

S. Jay Olshansky and colleagues analysed mortality data from the nine regions with the highest current life expectancies — including Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Australia, France, Italy, Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain — to compare to the United States between 1990 and 2019. They found that rising life expectancy decelerated across the globe and notably declined in the United States.

The accelerating rates of life expectancy increase observed in the 20th century have decelerated, especially after 2010; children born in recent years have a relatively low chance of reaching 100 years of age (5.3% chance for female, and 1.8% chance for male, individuals). The highest country-specific probability of children born in 2019 surviving to the age of 100 occurred in Hong Kong, where 12.8% of female individuals and 4.4% of male individuals are expected to reach the age of 100 in their lifetime. In the United States, the percentage of birth cohorts in 2019 expected to live to 100 years old are 3.1% of female individuals and 1.3% of male individuals.

Olshansky and colleagues suggest that there is no evidence to suggest that radical life extension has or will occur in the 21st century and note that, if it does, vast institutional changes will need to occur, including in retirement planning and life insurance pricing.Aging: The increase in human life expectancy is slowing down