Kick COVID's butt with social distancing and early travel bans

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2021-02-10 11:01

International

When it comes to managing a pandemic, mobility restrictions through travel restrictions and bans are most effective at the first phases of an outbreak, while social distancing is always beneficial and should be enforced at any stage, according to international researchers. The team used a mathematical model calibrated with data from the ongoing COVID outbreak in Italy and found that mobility restrictions are ineffective if implemented too late. The scientific community quickly reached consensus on the effectiveness of social distancing policies and travel limitations to combat the spread of COVID-19, the authors say, but this research could help reach a consensus on when and how to apply these interventions to obtain the maximum effect with limited restrictions.

Media release

From: The Royal Society

Modelling and predicting the effect of social distancing and travel restrictions on COVID-19 spreading

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

The scientific community has swiftly reached consensus on the effectiveness of social distancing policies and travel limitations to combat the spread of COVID-19. However, the same level of consensus has not been reached on when and how to apply these interventions to obtain the maximum effect with limited restrictions. This study establishes a mathematical model to steer these decisions in Italy, encapsulating key features of human behavior. Our findings reveal that mobility restrictions are mostly effective in the first phases of an outbreak. Social distancing, on the other hand, is always beneficial and should be enforced at any stage.

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Journal/
conference: Royal Society Interface

Research:Paper

Organisation/s: Politecnico di Torino, Italy

Funder: This work was partially supported by National Science Foundation (CMMI-1561134 and CMMI-2027990), Compagnia di San Paolo, MAECI (‘Mac2Mic’), the European Research Council (ERCCoG-771687) and The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO-vidi-14134).

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