Is it true that only 1 in 1000 sea turtle hatchlings that survive to adulthood?

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2026-03-25 11:01

Australia; VIC; QLD

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There is a figure often quoted that only 1 in 1000 sea turtle babies survive to become adults, but how true are those numbers? Australian researchers say this figure is based on estimates from over 50 years ago, so they looked at current data to work out how many actually survive. They found that the current survival rate is between 1 in 400 and 1 in 2000, with variations across populations and species. The researchers say popular articles that tend to quote the survival rate as 1 in 1000 are broadly on par with their estimates, although the survival rate likely varies appreciably between populations.

News release

From: The Royal Society

Is it really 1 in 1000 sea turtle hatchlings that survive to adulthood?

Royal Society Open Science

Everyone knows that very few hatchling sea turtles likely survive to become adults as they are so tiny and so are susceptible to many threats. Yet exactly how many do survive ? Using up-to-date figures for adult survival rates and hence adult longevity and lifetime reproductive output, we show that the survival rate of hatchlings to adulthood will generally lie between 1 in 400 and 1 in 2000. So popular articles that tend to quote this survival rate as 1 in 1000 are broadly comparable to our estimates, although the survival rate likely varies appreciably between populations.

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Journal/
conference: Royal Society Open Science

Research:Paper

Organisation/s: Deakin University, Queensland Government, James Cook University

Funder: G.C.H. was supported by the Bertarelli Foundation as part of the Bertarelli Programme in Marine Science (BPMS-2017-4 and 820633).

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