News release

From: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Strong El Niño expected to intensify as much of the world faces above normal temperatures and major changes in rainfall patterns

*    A strong El Niño is developing and expected to strengthen during August–October 2026
*    Above-normal temperatures are expected worldwide.
*    Rainfall patterns show a classic El Niño footprint: Wetter conditions are expected in some regions, while drought risk increases in others
*    A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to develop
*    Forecasts provide a window for early action and support decision making
*    WMO community mobilizes to save lives and livelihoods

Geneva, Switzerland, 31 July 2026 (WMO) – El Niño continues to intensify steadily and is expected to dominate global climate patterns in the August-October 2026 season, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Combined with exceptionally warm global oceans and the likelihood of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the developing El Niño is expected to shape weather patterns across many parts of the world in the months ahead.

The WMO community is stepping up coordination, climate information services and early warning support to help governments, humanitarian agencies, climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health, and vulnerable communities prepare for potential impacts.

WMO’s monthly WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates that El Niño will continue to steadily intensify into a strong event during August–October 2026. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres indicate seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions. In addition to a strengthening El Niño, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (a climate pattern in the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer on average, while the eastern Indian Ocean becomes cooler than average) is forecast. Together, these oceanic drivers can amplify regional climate impacts including drought, floods and wildfire risk, particularly around the Indian ocean basin. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are also expected to remain warmer than average.

“El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat.  And this is only a warm-up act. El Niño is strengthening – adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas. Fossil fuels are fanning the flames of this crisis.  Expansion must stop.  More coal, oil and gas will lead to a more combustible future. Unless we act – to protect people and tackle the root cause of the crisis – the dangers will become deadlier still. The warm-up act is over.  We cannot afford to wait for the main event.” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

"El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena in the world. But forecasts in themselves do not prevent hazards, people do. This El Niño developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold. The decisions we make today will shape the impacts we experience tomorrow. WMO and its Members are committed to ensuring that credible and relevant climate information reaches those that need it most,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

The Global Seasonal Climate Update complements WMO’s full El Niño/La Niña Update (next to be issued in early Sept). It provides a broader assessment of seasonal climate conditions by incorporating the influence of multiple climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean conditions, in addition to El Niño.

Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Global impacts

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful drivers of year-to-year climate variability. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and twelve months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures during the year following their onset.

The effects of each El Niño event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes (such as the Indian Ocean Dipole). Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur.
WMO classifies ENSO events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. The term “super El Niño” is not part of WMO's operational classification system and is therefore not used in official WMO products.

Seasonal outlook maps

The seasonal outlook maps for August-October, illustrate the probabilities of seasonal mean surface temperature(left) and precipitation (right) falling into above-, near-, or below-normal categories relative to local climatology. The colour coding identifies the category with the highest forecast probability. For example, red, blue, or grey regions indicate that the seasonal mean surface air temperature is most likely to be above-, below-, or near-normal, respectively. Deeper shades reflect a higher probability of the seasonal mean falling into that dominant category, while white areas denote equal chances (33.3% each) for all three categories. Crucially, an assigned colour indicates probability rather than certainty.

Temperature Outlook

The Global Seasonal Climate Update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above average temperatures across most land areas. The strongest signals of this trend extend across Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, Southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand. Over the oceans, the equatorial Pacific continues to reflect the footprint of the intensifying El Niño event.

Rainfall Outlook

The August–October 2026 rainfall outlook exhibits patterns of a classic, strong El Niño event. Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across the Greater Horn of Africa; parts of Central Asia; Southern Europe; Western North America (south of 45°N); and Southeastern South America. In contrast, drier-than-normal conditions are more likely over The Indian subcontinent; Southern and eastern Australia; Southern Central America and parts of the Caribbean; Northwestern South America; and Northern Europe.

WMO Action

WMO is intensifying its mobilization of information and support services to help countries anticipate and minimize the impacts of El Niño.

Regular briefings are being provided across the United Nations system and to humanitarian partners to support preparedness and risk management efforts. A WMO Coordination Mechanism Seasonal Climate Outlook briefing for UN agencies and humanitarian organizations on 24 June 2026 included regional outlooks such as the 2026 West African and Sahel rainy season forecast from the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre.

WMO is also developing a series of webinars and technical exchanges to strengthen regional coordination, communication and preparedness in response to the emerging El Niño event.

For more information on WMO El Niño Updates, read here.