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By 2040 we could already see the increased variability in the rain patterns associated with the La Niña and El Niño, regardless of which climate emissions scenarios we follow, according to Australian and international researchers. The study looked at how these climate patterns, known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, will change under different emissions projections. They found that changes in rainfall variability occur around 2040, about 30 years earlier than changes in sea surface temperatures, regardless of which emissions path we follow. Rainfall variability in the tropical Pacific caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climatic variability in Australia. The authors say this reinforces the rapidly emerging risks of La Niña and El Niño related climate extremes regardless of mitigation action.
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