Humans have made Aotearoa's rainy days rainier

Publicly released:
New Zealand
Photo by Zach Reiner on Unsplash
Photo by Zach Reiner on Unsplash

Wet days are wetter on the West Coast, because of human impacts on climate. Researchers compared thousands of rainfall simulations under present-day conditions with thousands of simulations under pre-industrial conditions - before human-induced climate change - keeping other factors like land surfaces and solar radiation identical. Climate change simulations had fewer wet days in most areas of NZ, but more of those were extremely wet, particularly on the West Coast - and for most of the country, on days when it rained, it rained more. Westerly winds were linked to the biggest increase in average and extreme rainfall over the West Coast, while rain from nor'westerly winds wasn't as affected by climate change.

Expert Reaction

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Dr Anjali Thomas, School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of Canterbury

"Our study shows that climate change, specifically human-induced changes, have affected rainfall patterns across Aotearoa New Zealand already. The number of rainy days has generally decreased, but the number of heavy rainfall days has increased, especially in the South Island, due to greenhouse gas forcing. The intensity of rainfall has also generally increased, with the most extreme rainfall increasing most rapidly.

"Overall, our research highlights that human-induced warming has influenced both the frequency and intensity of rainfall, but changes in weather patterns—also forced by greenhouse gases—complicate the picture. Our work highlights the need for continued research on understanding how rainfall patterns will change with future warming.

"This research was led by Anjali Thomas (recently graduated PhD student) at the University of Canterbury and supported by researchers at Victoria University of Wellington, NIWA and Bodeker Scientific."

Last updated:  11 Oct 2024 8:55am
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Declared conflicts of interest Dr Thomas is the lead author of this study.

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Research Elsevier, Web page
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conference:
Weather and Climate Extremes
Research:Paper
Organisation/s: University of Canterbury, Victoria University of Wellington, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra
Funder: The authors acknowledge funding from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), New Zealand, through the EWERAM project (Contract No. BSCIF1801), with additional support from theDeep South National Science Challenge (C01X1412) and the Endeavour Project ‘Whakahura’ (‘Extreme Events and the Emergence of Climate Change’) (RTVU1906).
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