While it is not yet officially summer, the time usually associated with the highest bushfire risk in the southern states across Australia, bushfire seasons are starting earlier and lasting longer. We have seen that this year across a number of states with the onset of El Nino. El Nino has contributed to vast areas of the country being categorised as having above normal bushfire potential according to our Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook, including around Esperance in Western Australia, where this saddening event has occurred.

September and October were exceptionally dry, including in southern Western Australia. October also set temperature records – it was the hottest October ever recorded in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales.

This year we've had early starts to the bushfire seasons in both WA and Victoria. Whether it's a trend we need to get used to is yet to be confirmed. 

Bushfire deaths are usually due to leaving too late and, tragically, at least one of those who died at Salmon Gums near Esperance was leaving late because they had spent time warning neighbours. This was heroic. 

The fires were sparked by a confluence of 111 lightning strikes coming at a time when temperatures were above 42°C, nor-easterly winds up to 104 km/hr and  a dew point of -4. 

Now we have at least 300 people hunkered down in the Town Hall and others sheltering nearby with their animals, dogs, cats and horses.  Apart from shelter, water, food and medical support, the importance of information for the psychological health of people in bushfire crisis is the first step, even before counselling. They need constant, accurate updates relating to their loved ones, neighbours, property, pets, the movements of fires and efforts to control them.

Recovery after trauma will be a long slow process, but right now they need to know what's going on, especially if they're staying to defend property. Fires create their own weather when they hit property and pass over - they can reach 1000°C at a hundred metres- as hot as a bunsen burner - so shelter is critical.

The Esperance and Goldfields region fires demonstrate  the need for considered, integrated and long-term action being taken.  The most effective management of bushfire risks focuses on forward-planning of settlements and properties that includes a combination of careful building, vegetation management and site planning actions that complement the capabilities of emergency response agencies. Further, these actions must be integrated with ongoing community education and training.  

The farms and settlements in the Esperance-Goldfields region are quite remote, often with limited access and evacuation options.  This means that emergency response from Police and Fire Services is often limited as situations unfold.  While leaving early is generally the best option, for people in these particular locations it is often not viable.  However, if residents have clear knowledge that they can shelter with their families in their homes, with certainty that they can defend them, it significantly reduces the risks to those people and reduces the burden upon, and risks for, emergency services.  

The challenge is to improve planning and building regulations to facilitate this, because these provisions do not apply to existing structures that may have been built well before planning and building regulations.  In all cases, community education and ongoing development and updates to risk management plans vastly improve people’s safety in these circumstances.

Over time, if town planning, building regulations and vegetation management controls are used in conjunction with community engagement with response agencies, risks from fires will be considerably reduced.”

I am presently located 200 kms south west of Esperance near Bremer Bay - the scene of major bushfires that threatened the remote townsite in 2012.

I am working at my Point Henry Peninsula research site - which is undeveloped and richly biodiverse bushland. The vegetation in this region is especially 'volatile' this season. There have been a number of accidental fires in the last few weeks caused by residents and contractors managing bushland to reduce fuel loads in preparation for the fire season. Due to quick responses of the local brigade, these fires have not developed into uncontrolled wildfires such as those of the scale we experienced in 2002, when lightning-ignited fires went on to burn the entire peninsula. 

Lighting-ignited fires are our greatest fear here - as evidenced by the tragic events experienced by our regional neighbours in Esperance. It is time for this correspondent to put his fire plan in place.

The tragic WA bushfires highlight the dangerous fire season that is now upon southern Australia and which is likely to continue for several more months.

The early onset of the southern Australian fire season (three total fire ban days already in Tasmania this Spring) is related to the combination dryness and warmth driven in part by planetary-scale climate modes driven by sea surface temperatures such as El Nino in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean Dipole. (http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=decile&period=week&area=nat)

The seriousness of the current southern Australian fire season underscores the need for communities and individuals to actively prepare for possible fire disasters by closely following the advice and warnings of the State Fire Services, preparing well thought out fire survival plans and following these plans. These plans must include leaving properties well before extremely dangerous fires threaten an area.

Following plans to leave early will mean that there will be false alarms which, although they are inconvenient, are a necessary part of living through dangerous fire weather.