Vaccines alone are not enough for controlling Delta, as we have seen in countries like Israel, the US and UK.  Vaccine-Plus and ventilation (safe indoor air) are needed. We will need to continue some level of public health measures to contain epidemic growth to ensure that we do not overload the health system. We also need a more comprehensive plan to protect children and enable schools to stay open, which requires safe indoor air in classrooms, as Victoria has begun planning for.

Most kids, even those 12 and over, will not be vaccinated soon, and as seen in other countries, the virus will spread in the unvaccinated. Masks should be used in primary and secondary schools, as outlined in the OzSAGE response to The NCIRS report. https://www.ozsage.org/media_releases/ozsage-comment-on-the-ncirs-report-covid-19-delta-variant-in-schools-and-early-childhood-education-and-care-services-in-nsw-australia-16-june-to-31-july-2021/

We must also ensure that vaccination targets are met for Aboriginal communities in NSW, and other disadvantaged communities before travel to regional NSW commences, or these communities will suffer disproportionate outbreaks.

While it is important to provide some hope to people enduring various levels of lockdown, and the need for this cannot be overstated, I see three substantial risks with the NSW proposal. Firstly, there seems to be a ‘brushing over’ of the potential numbers of cases and deaths that opening up sooner rather than later will inevitably incur. A public discussion and some consensus on what sort of numbers the community will accept is really required here.

Secondly, there are real signs that both the NSW contact tracing system and health care system is already straining under current case numbers and it may be that existing loads are unsustainable, and perhaps unable to cope with increases in case loads that will be associated with implementing the NSW roadmap.

Finally, there appears to be inbuilt inequity in the freedoms that will be extended to the fully vaccinated, with already disadvantaged groups less likely to be able to avail themselves of these opportunities relative to more advantaged sections of the population. Such apparent assaults to social cohesion will negatively impact on the implementation of the roadmap, given it utterly depends on the ongoing compliance of everyone in NSW.

The NSW roadmap to freedom does provide some welcome hope to people who have been doing it tough under COVID-19 induced lockdowns. However, there are still some major questions over whether the roadmap is safe, or will lead to a significant increase in cases, hospitalisations and deaths.

It will also be key for the NSW Government to employ a good behaviour change strategy with the public. Clear communication, support, and guidance will need to be provided on how vaccination status will be checked, how will this be policed, and what will be the implications of opening up be for those who remain unvaccinated. Existing COVID-safe behaviours including mask wearing, spatial distancing, checking in, and testing, tracing, isolating, and quarantining will also still be needed. So, these behaviours will need to be strongly communicated and supported.

We must make it simple and easy for people to follow the recommended behavioural advice. High rates of vaccination are one key measure to help NSW open up, but this will need to be combined with other behaviours to keep the virus at bay.

The NSW RoadMap looks reasonable – we have to open up at some point, and this plan seems a reasonable plan. 

 
However, a good plan does not mean it will work – especially with COVID-19!  What will be required is very close monitoring of daily cases after (each) incremental opening up. 

If the daily increase in numbers surges, and a forecast suggests the numbers will surge beyond whatever the threshold of daily cases that NSW is prepared to tolerate is (say 2,000, with 100 hospitalisations per day as a maximum), then some opening up will need to be reversed. 
 
Second, vaccinated people can still get infected and transmit the virus. AstraZeneca has about 60 per cent effectiveness at stopping any infection, Pfizer 80 per cent (they are both much better at stopping serious illness and death). Assume an average of 70 per cent. 

Then the chance of transmission in an environment is reduced by over 90 per cent if both people contacting each other are vaccinated, compared to two unvaccinated people contacting each other.  (For the mathematically orientated, 1 – (1-70 per cent).(1-70 per cent) = 91 per cent reduction, and add on a bit more (how much is unknown) for the hopefully reduced infectivity of a vaccinated but still infected person.)  So – yes – greater liberties for vaccinated people are justified, but we still need to be cautious (e.g. masks on, get tested if symptomatic, etc).