The team designed a global simulation model that included roughly 50,000 coral reef sites, incorporating processes essential to coral reef health, such as how corals grow, disperse, evolve, and adapt to heat stress. They included experimental data and then tested three future emissions scenarios: low warming (~2℃ by 2100), moderate warming (~3℃), and high warming (>4℃).

"It was previously suggested that tropical coral species might be able to find ‘refuge’ in subtropical and temperate seas by expanding poleward and establishing new, higher latitude coral reefs.

"Unfortunately, while we've confirmed that coral reef range expansion will indeed eventually occur, the biggest coral losses are expected in the next 50 years, meaning these new, higher-latitude reefs won't form fast enough to save most tropical corals. Places like northern Florida, southern Australia, and southern Japan might eventually see new reefs, but not soon enough to help many tropical coral species survive the 21st century.