Media release

From: Springer Nature

Climate change: Betting on climate change outcomes increases climate concern

Placing bets on potential events related to climate change can increase concern about, and understanding of, climate change, regardless of previous views, suggests a study published in Nature Climate Change.

Beliefs about climate change tend to be politically influenced, polarized and are notoriously difficult to change, and strategies that use informational or value-based arguments have seen limited success in changing views. This is, in part, due to the complex nature of climate change, as well as the large scope and long-term nature of its impacts, which means that there is very little immediate cost to people ignoring or rejecting it.

Moran Cerf and colleagues used prediction markets, a tool used to crowd-source estimates about uncertain future events, with participants in the United States to test whether people’s attitudes could be influenced if they experienced increasing short-term costs related to incorrect beliefs on climate change. The authors conducted two trials: an initial, smaller trial with 143 participants and a second, larger trial with 664 participants. In both trials, participants were surveyed before and afterwards and results were compared to control groups who did not participate in the prediction market. Participants were asked to bet on future climate events, such as the likelihood of temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere being higher than the equivalent period over the last decade, and received financial rewards for correct predictions and were penalized for incorrect predictions. The authors found that participating in the prediction markets increased concern about climate change and that participants also had higher levels of support for climate action, as well as increased knowledge of climate issues. The authors note that although the effects determined were small, they were not impacted by previous beliefs or political ideology.

Cerf and co-authors suggest that these findings could indicate an effective mechanism for modifying people’s attitudes and behaviours around climate change, which is critical for furthering mitigation.

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Springer Nature is committed to boosting the visibility of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and relevant information and evidence published in our journals and books. The research described in this press release pertains to SDG 13 (Climate Action). More information can be found here.

Article details

Participating in a climate prediction market increases concern about global warming

DOI
10.1038/s41558-023-01679-4