Media release

From: Springer Nature

Climate change: Identifying regions most at-risk of high-impact heatwaves

Regions of the world where record-breaking heat extremes are statistically more likely to occur and have the greatest impact are identified in a Nature Communications paper. The study suggests that unprecedented heat extremes combined with increased socioeconomic vulnerability could put certain regions — such as Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea, and Central America — at a particularly high-risk from rare heatwaves. The authors recommend that policy makers in vulnerable regions consider relevant action plans to reduce the risk of mortalities from climatic extremes.

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent under anthropogenic climate change and have the potential to lead to thousands more excess deaths, globally. The vulnerability of a region to heat extremes largely depends on socioeconomic factors, such as rapid population growth and limited health service and energy supply. Less developed regions are therefore more vulnerable and less likely to have adequate levels of preparedness for extreme heatwaves.

Vikki Thompson and colleagues used extreme value statistics — a method to estimate the return periods of rare events — and large datasets from climate models and observations to identify regions of the world where temperature records are most likely to be broken more quickly, and therefore the communities at the highest risk of experiencing extreme heat. Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea, and Central America were identified as hotspots for high-risk heatwaves because they have a growing population and limited access to healthcare and energy sources. The authors also suggest that extreme heatwaves could occur anywhere in the world. They found that statistically implausible extremes, such as the 2021 Western North America heatwave, have occurred in 31% of the regions assessed (they excluded regions where data is less reliable) between 1959 and 2021.

The authors suggest that every region in the world needs to be prepared for rare heatwaves deemed implausible based on current observational records.

Springer Nature is committed to boosting the visibility of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and relevant information and evidence published in our journals and books.  The research described in this press release pertains to SDG 13 (Climate Action). More information can be found here.