Media release

From: Springer Nature

Impact on wine production assessed

Up to 70% of current wine-producing regions could face a substantial risk of losing their suitability for winegrowing if global temperatures increase beyond 2°C, according to a review article published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.

Current winegrowing regions are primarily located at mid-latitudes (such as, California, southern France, northern Spain and Italy). However, the geography of wine production is changing as a result of climate change impacting grape yield, grape composition at harvest, and wine quality.

As part of a review, Cornelis van Leeuwen and colleagues assembled a global view of the changing geography of wine production. After segmenting each continent and their wine-producing areas into macro-regions defined by specific climate-driven conditions, the authors estimate a substantial risk of unsuitability for 49% to 70% of existing wine regions, depending on the degree of global warming. Specifically, 29% might experience extreme climate conditions, such as increased heatwaves and excessive droughts, preventing premium wine production. For example, above 2°C of warming 90% of traditional coastal and lowland winegrowing regions of Spain, Italy, Greece, and southern California could face high loss of suitability by the end of the century because of excessive drought and more frequent heatwaves. The future of the remaining 41% of existing wine regions at risk of unsuitability will hinge on the feasibility of effective adaptation measures. Simultaneously, 11% to 25% of existing wine regions might experience enhanced production (such as, Washington State and northern France) with rising temperatures, and new suitable areas might emerge at higher latitudes (for example, the southern UK) and altitudes. However, the degree of these changes in suitability will strongly depend on the level of temperature rise.

The authors conclude that climate change will drive major changes in global wine production in the near future, and both winegrowers and consumers will need to adapt to these changes. As viticulture expands into new regions, impacts on natural ecosystems and biodiversity will also need to be monitored so any negative impacts can be mitigated.