Substantial rise in gynaecological cancers likely over next 20 years, NZ study finds

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2026-03-13 00:01

New Zealand

Laboratoires Servier, Wikimedia Commons

Over 80% more NZ women per year may be diagnosed with gynaecological cancers by 2045, with an even higher increase among Māori and Pacific women. In a new study analysing cancer registry data from 2001 to 2022, researchers forecast that while cervical cancers are set to fall thanks to vaccines and HPV testing, uterine cancers will more than double over the next two decades. The Auckland and Northland health region is likely to see the biggest increases in gynaecological cancer. The researchers say we need to prioritise equitable early detection, prevention (by decreasing risk factors like diabetes and obesity), and forward planning to increase the capacity of health services.

News release

From: Pasifika Medical Association Group

National and regional projections of gynaecological cancers in Aotearoa New Zealand: a projection model to 2045 highlighting an opportunity for collective action

Gynaecological cancers in Aotearoa New Zealand are projected to increase substantially over the next 20 years, with the number of cases expected to rise by more than 80% by 2045. Most of this growth is driven by uterine cancer, which is projected to more than double. The largest increases are expected among Māori and Pacific women and in the Northern Region, meaning the impact will not be evenly distributed. Although cervical cancer rates are expected to decline due to vaccination and screening, overall demand for diagnosis and treatment services is likely to grow. These findings highlight the need for earlier detection, prevention efforts and forward planning to ensure services can meet future demand.

Journal/
conference: New Zealand Medical Journal

Organisation/s: Te Whatu Ora - Health New Zealand

Funder: N/A

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