News release

From: Adelaide University

The world’s rapid shift to solar power is creating a massive new waste problem, with up to 402 million tonnes of discarded solar panels projected to accumulate globally by 2060, according to new research involving Adelaide University.

However, in an international study published in Nature today, researchers say the looming mountain of photovoltaic (PV) waste could deliver almost $1 trillion in economic benefits if recycled properly.

The study, involving researchers from China, Australia and Sweden, estimates that global PV waste will reach 297–402 million tonnes by 2060, with middle-income regions such as China becoming major contributors after 2040.

A co-author on the paper, Professor Jian Zuo from Adelaide University’s School of Civil Engineering and Construction Management, said the findings highlight the need to plan for solar panels’ entire life cycle – not just their installation and operation.

“Solar power is essential to the transition to a low-carbon energy system, but we cannot ignore what happens to solar panels at the end of their working lives,” Professor Zuo said.

“If we plan for recycling now, this growing waste stream can become a valuable source of materials rather than an environmental burden.”

Solar panels contain valuable materials including silicon, silver, copper and tellurium, as well as metals such as lead and cadmium that can pose environmental risks if panels are improperly disposed of.

The researchers developed an integrated model examining 1708 different recycling scenarios across 32 global regions, taking into account recycling technologies, material prices, international trade, and subsidies policies.

They found that combining region-specific recycling technologies with outsourced recycling could deliver the greatest overall benefits.

Under this approach, recycling could generate hundreds of billions of US dollars in cumulative net economic benefits by 2060, while avoiding billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions.

But there is a catch.

Sending solar panel waste to countries with cheaper and more advanced recycling facilities can reduce overall costs and emissions, but risks concentrating the economic benefits in wealthier or technologically advanced regions.

The researchers found that low-income regions could receive a marginal share of total economic gains from recycling by 2060, even under a scenario where recycling technologies become more widely available.

Professor Zuo said recycling policies therefore needed to consider both efficiency and fairness.

“The cheapest or most efficient recycling pathway globally is not necessarily the fairest,” Professor Zuo said.

“If developing regions are left without the technology, infrastructure or investment needed to recycle solar panels, they risk missing out on the economic benefits while potentially carrying more of the environmental burden.”

The study found that a declining subsidy model could improve the distribution of recycling benefits between regions.

Unlike permanent subsidies, which can be expensive, the approach gradually reduces financial support as recycling becomes commercially viable.

The researchers estimate this could improve inter-regional equality, while requiring only a fraction of the expenditure of continuous subsidies.

The research also highlights the importance of material prices.

Rising prices for recovered materials such as silver, aluminium and silicon could increase the economic value of recycling, while technological advances are expected to substantially reduce recycling costs over time.

Professor Zuo said international cooperation would be critical.

“We need to think of solar panels as part of a circular economy rather than a disposable product,” Professor Zuo said.

“That means investing in recycling capacity, sharing technology and designing policies that allow all regions to participate in the economic and environmental benefits of the solar transition.”

The researchers say the global PV industry now has an opportunity to build recycling capacity before the waste problem reaches its peak, rather than waiting until millions of tonnes of panels are already reaching the end of their lives.

‘Towards an equitable future of global photovoltaic waste recycling’ is published in Nature.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10905-w