William Cho, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons
William Cho, CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

Rise of the War Machines: What drove 10,000 years of military technology?

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A new study spanning 10,000 years of history has found that world population size, major technological advances, and geographical connectivity drove the innovation, spread, and adoption of new military technologies prior to the Industrial Revolution. The researchers analysed a databank, that contains historical and archaeological data for numerous societies dating from the late part of the Stone Age to the present. The authors said they were surprised to find that the size and internal complexity of states had very little impact on the evolution of military technology. Instead, increased connectivity – and growing conflict – between societies across great distances, as well as the adoption of certain key innovations like cavalry and iron metallurgy, emerged as key drivers of military technological evolution, they said.

Journal/conference: PLOS ONE

Link to research (DOI): 10.1371/journal.pone.0258161

Organisation/s: Complexity Science Hub, Austria, Evolution Institute, USA

Funder: This work was supported by: a John Templeton Foundation grant to the Evolution Institute, entitled "Axial-Age Religions and the ZCurve of Human Egalitarianism" (HW, PF, PT); a Tricoastal Foundation grant to the Evolution Institute, entitled "The Deep Roots of the Modern World: The Cultural Evolution of Economic Growth and Political Stability" (PT); an Economic and Social Research Council Large Grant to the University of Oxford, entitled "Ritual, Community, and Conflict" (REF RES-060-25-0085) (HW); a grant from the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 644055 [ALIGNED, www.aligned-project.eu]) (HW, PF); a European Research Council Advanced Grant to the University of Oxford, entitled “Ritual Modes: Divergent modes of ritual, social cohesion, prosociality, and conflict" (HW, PF); a grant from the Institute of Economics and Peace to develop a Historical Peace Index (HW, PF, PT, DH); and the program “Complexity Science,” which is supported by the Austrian Research Promotion Agency FFG under grant #873927 (PT).

Media release

From: PLOS

Rise of the War Machines: Identifying key drivers of the evolution of military technology in pre-industrial societies

World population size, geographical connectivity and major technological advances are key drivers, per new methodology

A new analysis spanning 10,000 years of history and ten major world regions has identified world population size, major technological advances, and geographical connectivity as key drivers of the evolution of military technology prior to the Industrial Revolution. Peter Turchin of Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Austria, and colleagues present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on October 20, 2021.

Despite extensive speculation, the mechanisms that drove innovation, spread, and adoption of new military technologies in pre-industrial societies have been unclear. Prior research into this topic has often been criticized as being overly subjective, and many research efforts have been limited to narrow geographic regions or time periods.

To help clarify drivers of military technological evolution, Turchin and colleagues developed a new, systematic methodology that employs a resource known as Seshat: Global History Databank. This databank, originally developed by Turchin and others, serves as a growing collection of historical and archaeological data for numerous societies dating from the late Neolithic to the present.

For the new study, the researchers developed a quantitative approach for analyzing Seshat data that incorporates mathematical modeling and statistical analysis. They applied this methodology to empirically test prior hypotheses about military technological advancement in pre-industrial societies.

The researchers found support for several prior hypotheses; namely, that pre-industrial military technological evolution was indeed driven by world population size, connectivity between regions where technology is innovated and adopted, and key innovations, such as improvements in metallurgy. Meanwhile, they found, pre-industrial military technological evolution was not driven by smaller state-level factors, such as the population of a society, the size of its territory, or the sophistication of its government.

The authors view this study and their methodology as a significant first step towards better understanding of the drivers of both military technological advancement and technological advancements in general. They hope that future research will refine and extend this work; for example, by exploring the development of various technologies impacts equality and public well-being. 

The authors add: “In this paper we set out to study the processes driving the evolution of military technology in the pre-industrial world. We were surprised to find that the size and internal complexity of states had very little impact. Instead, increased connectivity – and growing conflict – between societies across great distances, as well as the adoption of certain key innovations like cavalry and iron metallurgy, emerged as key drivers of military technological evolution.”

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