Media release

From: The Lancet

Life expectancy in the Gaza Strip almost halved between Oct 2023 and Sep 2024 compared to pre-war levels, study estimates  

Life expectancy in the Gaza Strip has been nearly cut in half (-46.3%) since the current war began in October 2023, according to new estimates published in The Lancet. The study found that life expectancy dropped from a pre-war average of 75.5 years to 40.5 years for the period of time between October 2023 and September 2024. The decrease in life expectancy was higher for men (-51.6%; 73.6 years pre-war to 35.6 years) than for women (-38.6%; 77.4 years pre-war to 47.5 years).  

The authors cross-referenced the lists of fatalities reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health for the period Oct 7, 2023 to Aug 30, 2024 with a refugee register maintained by the United Nations  Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which covers about  66% of the Gaza Strip population. Then, alongside census data and vital registration data, they produced estimates of life expectancy losses in the Gaza Strip for the first 12 months of the war. The Palestinian Ministry of Health also provided a separate estimate of the minimum number of individuals reported ‘missing or under the rubble’.  

The authors calculated three life expectancy scenarios:  
*The central scenario - based on the official count of fatalities from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, excluding the estimated count of individuals reported missing or under the rubble, estimates life expectancy between Oct 2023 and Sep 2024 to be 40.5 years.  
*The low scenario - based on deaths for which complete identifying information was available - estimates life expectancy between Oct 2023 and Sep 2024 to be 44.4 years. 
*The high scenario - based on the official count of fatalities from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, including the lower bound of the estimated count of individuals reported missing or under the rubble - estimates life expectancy between Oct 2023 and Sep 2024 to be 36.1 years. 

The authors caution that the central scenario estimate of 40.5 years life expectancy includes deaths for people whose identification information was not complete and whose existence could not be cross-checked against the UNRWA register, however as the estimate doesn’t include individuals reported missing or under the rubble it may still be an underestimation. Additionally, the authors highlight that none of the scenarios include the indirect effects of the war – such as lack of access to health care and malnutrition - on mortality.