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Health impacts linked to plastics emissions could more than double by 2040, modelling study suggests
A modelling study published in The Lancet Planetary Health journal suggests that the adverse health effects associated with emissions from the global plastics system – greenhouse gases, air-polluting particles, and toxic chemicals released particularly from plastics production processes - could more than double from 2016 to 2040 if no meaningful action is taken to change current practices. However, the authors note that their model could not assess the potential health impacts associated with the use of plastics, nor with many chemicals contained in plastics and microplastics and nanoplastics formed across the plastics life cycle, due to data gaps and a critical lack of transparency on plastics composition.
Plastic pollution and the emissions released across its lifecycle are increasingly recognised as having potential impacts on human health, yet the overall scale of these impacts is only beginning to be fully quantified.
The study used a model which compared the global human health impacts of several different future scenarios for plastics consumption and waste management between 2016 and 2040. The model found that health impacts linked to plastics could more than double by 2040 under a “business-as-usual” scenario, where plastic production keeps increasing and no meaningful action is taken to change current practices. Th study highlights how global production of plastics may not peak until beyond 2100. The modelling results predicted little impact from improving plastic waste collection and recycling alone, but the model combined the most effective action of reducing plastic production, with improvements to waste collection and recycling and substituting or reusing materials reduced health impacts linked to plastic emissions.
The authors note that the study is based on modelling and available emissions data, which involves inherent limitations, including gaps in information on the chemical composition of plastics and substitutes, and the exclusion of potential benefits plastics provide in different sectors or circumstances.
The authors say to effectively reduce plastic emissions and their impact on health, policymakers must better regulate and significantly reduce the production of new plastics for non-essential uses.
